Trade setup for September 30: Top 15 things to know before the opening bells

Nifty Trade setup for September 30

The Nifty 50 closed moderately lower after a volatile session ahead of the monthly F&O expiry due on September 30, extending its downward move for the seventh consecutive session on September 29. Bearish sentiment clearly prevailed; however, there is a possibility of consolidation before a firmer directional move. The index defended the 24,600 level for another session, which now acts as immediate support, followed by 24,500 (upward-sloping support trendline) and 24,400 (200-day EMA). On the upside, the hurdle is placed in the 24,800–24,900 zone, according to experts.

Here are 15 data points we have collated to help you spot profitable trades:

1) Key Levels For The Nifty 50 (24,635)

Resistance based on pivot points: 24,748, 24,792, and 24,863

Support based on pivot points: 24,607, 24,563, and 24,492

Special Formation: The Nifty 50 formed a bearish candle with an upper shadow on the daily timeframe amid above-average volumes, indicating persistent weakness in the market. The index remained below the 20-, 50-, and 100-day EMAs, as well as below the midline of the Bollinger Bands. The MACD is inching down toward the zero line with a negative crossover, and the histogram reflects further weakness. The RSI stayed below the 40 level, at 38.79. All these indicators point to sustained bearish momentum.

2) Key Levels For The Bank Nifty (54,461)

Resistance based on pivot points: 54,633, 54,742, and 54,917

Support based on pivot points: 54,282, 54,174, and 53,998

Resistance based on Fibonacci retracement: 54,521, 55,115

Support based on Fibonacci retracement: 54,048, 53,562

Special Formation: The banking index formed a Doji candlestick pattern on the daily timeframe, signaling indecision between bulls and bears. The appearance of this pattern after a sharp downtrend often suggests a potential trend reversal, though confirmation is awaited in the coming sessions. Overall, the sentiment remains bearish, as the index traded below the 20-, 50-, and 100-day EMAs. The MACD is on the verge of a bearish crossover, with the histogram falling below the zero line. Meanwhile, the RSI stood at 42.15, showing a slight upward inclination but sustaining a negative crossover. All of this indicates that bearish pressure may persist unless a reversal is confirmed.

3) Nifty Call Options Data

According to the monthly options data, the 25,000 strike holds the maximum Call open interest (with 1.86 crore contracts). This level can act as a key resistance for the Nifty in the short term. It was followed by the 24,800 strike (1.58 crore contracts), and the 25,200 strike (1.51 crore contracts).

Maximum Call writing was observed at the 24,700 strike, which saw an addition of 55.7 lakh contracts, followed by the 24,750 and 24,800 strikes, which added 37.05 lakh and 31.93 lakh contracts, respectively. The maximum Call unwinding was seen at the 25,250 strike, which shed 23.26 lakh contracts, followed by the 25,300 and 25,350 strikes, which shed 14.31 lakh and 13.05 lakh contracts, respectively.

4) Nifty Put Options Data

On the Put side, the maximum Put open interest was seen at the 24,000 strike (with 1.46 crore contracts), which can act as a key support level for the Nifty. It was followed by the 24,600 strike (1.17 crore contracts) and the 24,500 strike (1.1 crore contracts).

The maximum Put writing was placed at the 24,000 strike, which saw an addition of 56.01 lakh contracts, followed by the 24,650 and 24,600 strikes, which added 29.95 lakh and 25.71 lakh contracts, respectively. The maximum Put unwinding was seen at the 24,900 strike, which shed 17.79 lakh contracts, followed by the 24,500 and 25,000 strikes, which shed 13.03 lakh and 11.89 lakh contracts, respectively.

5) Bank Nifty Call Options Data

According to the monthly options data, the maximum Call open interest was seen at the 55,000 strike, with 16.79 lakh contracts. This can act as a key resistance level for the index in the short term. It was followed by the 56,000 strike (12.87 lakh contracts) and the 55,500 strike (12.42 lakh contracts).

Maximum Call writing was observed at the 54,500 strike (with the addition of 1.57 lakh contracts), followed by the 54,600 strike (1.06 lakh contracts), and the 54,900 strike (60,970 contracts). The maximum Call unwinding was seen at the 55,500 strike, which shed 5.08 lakh contracts, followed by 55,300 and 56,500 strikes, which shed 3.56 lakh and 3.52 lakh contracts, respectively.

6) Bank Nifty Put Options Data

On the Put side, the 54,000 strike holds the maximum Put open interest (with 18.68 lakh contracts), which can act as a key support level for the index. This was followed by the 54,500 strike (11.11 lakh contracts) and the 53,000 strike (9.45 lakh contracts).

The maximum Put writing was observed at the 54,500 strike (which added 3.96 lakh contracts), followed by the 54,100 strike (3.45 lakh contracts) and the 54,000 strike (2.28 lakh contracts). The maximum Put winding was seen at the 55,000 strike, which shed 1.71 lakh contracts, followed by the 54,900 and 53,500 strikes, which shed 1.22 lakh and 86,065 contracts, respectively.

7) Funds Flow (Rs crore)

8) Put-Call Ratio

The Nifty Put-Call ratio (PCR), which indicates the mood of the market, climbed to 0.71 on September 29, compared to 0.63 in the previous session.

The increasing PCR, or being higher than 0.7 or surpassing 1, means traders are selling more Put options than Call options, which generally indicates the firming up of a bullish sentiment in the market. If the ratio falls below 0.7 or moves towards 0.5, then it indicates selling in Calls is higher than selling in Puts, reflecting a bearish mood in the market.

9) India VIX

The India VIX, also known as the fear index, remained in the higher zone, though it declined 0.53 percent to 11.37. The index hovered around its 50-day EMA, which continues to signal caution for the bulls.

10) Long Build-up (64 Stocks)

A long build-up was seen in 64 stocks. An increase in open interest (OI) and price indicates a build-up of long positions.

11) Long Unwinding (30 Stocks)

30 stocks saw a decline in open interest (OI) along with a fall in price, indicating long unwinding.

12) Short Build-up (37 Stocks)

37 stocks saw an increase in OI along with a fall in price, indicating a build-up of short positions.

13) Short-Covering (81 Stocks)

81 stocks saw short-covering, meaning a decrease in OI, along with a price increase.

14) High Delivery Trades

Here are the stocks that saw a high share of delivery trades. A high share of delivery reflects investing (as opposed to trading) interest in a stock.

15) Stocks Under F&O Ban

Securities banned under the F&O segment include companies where derivative contracts cross 95 percent of the market-wide position limit.

Stocks added to F&O ban: Sammaan Capital

Stocks retained in F&O ban: RBL Bank

Stocks removed from F&O ban: Nil

Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by experts on Moneycontrol are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.

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