Technical View: Nifty needs clear breakout above 24,700 to sustain bullish momentum; Bank Nifty indicates bullish reversal

Nifty Outlook for August 14

The Nifty 50 rebounded and witnessed a sustainable upside throughout the session, recouping all of its previous day's losses and closing half a percent higher on August 13, ahead of the weekly F&O expiry scheduled on August 14.

The index ended the day exactly at the 10-day EMA after trading within the previous day's range. However, it could not surpass the previous day's hurdle at 24,700, which remains a crucial level for a further upmove toward 24,800 (50-day EMA), and eventually toward the 25,000 zone. On the lower side, 24,465 (the previous day's low) is expected to act as a support in the upcoming session.

The benchmark index opened higher at 24,586 and traded within a range of 24,665–24,535 with a positive bias before closing at 24,619, up 132 points. A bullish candle with upper and lower shadows was formed on the daily chart, indicating a gradual upmove but lacking strong momentum. The index has now sustained a higher low formation for the third consecutive session.

According to Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities, the short-term trend of the Nifty remains positive.

"A decisive move above the crucial hurdle of 24,700 levels could open further upside towards 25,000 levels in the near term. Immediate support is placed at 24,465 levels," he said.

Derivative Update

Weekly options data suggest that the Nifty 50 is expected to trade in the 24,500–24,800 range in the upcoming sessions.

On the Call side, the maximum Call open interest was placed at the 25,000 strike, followed by the 24,700 and 24,800 strikes, with the maximum Call writing at the 24,650 strike and then the 24,700 and 24,950 strikes.

On the Put side, the 24,600 strike holds the maximum Put open interest, followed by the 24,500 and 24,000 strikes, with the maximum Put writing at the 24,600 strike, and then the 24,500 and 24,550 strikes.

Bank Nifty

The Bank Nifty also traded higher within the previous day's range and finished the session at 55,181, up 138 points, signaling consolidation. The banking index formed a small bearish candle within the previous day's long red candle, resembling a Homing Pigeon candlestick pattern on the daily chart—typically considered a bullish reversal signal when it appears after a downtrend.

This pattern suggests that selling pressure may be easing, indicating a potential rebound on the horizon. However, confirmation of this pattern will be needed in the next trading session.

Looking ahead, Sudeep Shah, Head – Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities, said, "The 100-day EMA zone (54,955) is expected to act as a key support area for Bank Nifty. A sustained hold above this zone could help maintain the current consolidation and potentially set the stage for a recovery."

On the upside, he believes the 55,500–55,600 zone will be a crucial resistance area. A decisive breakout above 55,600 may trigger a sharp trending move to the upside. However, a break below 54,850 could lead to renewed selling pressure, opening the door for a deeper correction.

India VIX

Meanwhile, the India VIX, the fear index, fell by 0.76 percent to 12.14 after a three-day uptrend. It continues to hold above the 12 mark as well as short-term moving averages for the fourth consecutive session. This indicates sustained caution in the market despite the recent rebound.

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