Sensex, Nifty set for a weak open amid mixed global cues; key levels to track on July 25

The low-volatility environment indicates that despite intraday selling, there's no panic exit from long positions—reinforcing the view of a range-bound market rather than a clear trend breakdown.

Benchmark indices Nifty and Sensex are likely to open on a weak footing amid mixed global market cues. Asian markets traded lower, while the US stock market ended mixed overnight, with the Nasdaq and S&P closing at record highs. The Gift Nifty was trading at 24,997, lower by 0.36 percent.

Dalal Street came under pressure on Thursday, July 24, as weak earnings and margin misses in the IT and FMCG sectors triggered a selloff. The Nifty IT index dropped over 2 percent, weighed down by Persistent Systems, Coforge, and Infosys.

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Foreign institutional investors (FII/FPI) were net sellers on July 24, selling shares worth Rs 2,134 crore, while domestic institutional investors (DII) were net buyers of shares worth Rs 2,617 crore, provisional data showed.

Here are the key levels to watch out for in today's session

Technically, the index has slipped back into a choppy trading band, hovering between its 20-day EMA and 50-day EMA, placed at 25,150 and 24,950, respectively. A sustained breakout above the 25,300 level is still awaited to confirm bullish momentum. On the downside, the 50-day EMA near 24,950, combined with the psychological mark of 25,000, forms a critical support shelf for bulls, possibly their last line of defence. Notably, the 24,800–24,900 cluster has repeatedly served as a strong base throughout the month, and with the index oscillating in this pocket, dips are likely to attract renewed buying as long as 24,800 holds firm. A decisive close above 25,250 remains the key to reversing the current bearish bias and reviving a broader bullish tone.

"The index remains stuck in a sideways range, reflecting ongoing trader uncertainty. Technically, it faces stiff resistance near 57,350, while strong support lies around 56,600. Unless the index decisively breaks above 57,300, bullish momentum is likely to remain capped," Dhupesh Dhameja of SAMCO Securities said. "On the downside, the 20-day EMA around 56,800 and the horizontal support zone near 56,600 form a crucial buffer. This 56,600–56,800 range has consistently held firm through the month, encouraging buying on dips. A sustained close above 57,350 is key to reversing the bearish undertone," he added.

India VIX ticked up mildly by 2 percent, settling at 10.72. Despite the rise, it remains comfortably below the psychological threshold of 13, reflecting a market still devoid of panic or aggressive de-risking. The low-volatility backdrop suggests that while intraday selling persists, there’s no fear-driven rush to exit longs, further validating the ongoing phase of range-bound action rather than a decisive trend breakdown.

The Put-Call Ratio (PCR) slipped from 1.08 to 0.76, indicating a rise in call writing and a gradual bearish tilt in positioning. This tug-of-war between option writers at 25,000 and 25,200 levels highlights the broader indecision in the market.

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