Sensex, Nifty eye weak start as Trump tariff jitters resurface; key levels to track on July 11

India VIX fell 2.24 percent to 11.67, staying well below the 15 mark. The low volatility suggests subdued investor fear and a slow, range-bound market.

Benchmark indices Nifty and Sensex are set for a weak start on July 11, likely extending their losing streak to a third straight session, after fresh tariff threats from US President Donald Trump rattled global sentiment. Trump announced a 35 percent tariff on Canadian imports starting August 1 and hinted at blanket duties of 15 to 20 percent on most trade partners, reigniting fears of a global trade war.

At approximately 7:55 a.m., the GIFT Nifty was trading at 25,283, down 127 points or 0.5 per cent.

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In the previous session, equity indices were weighed down by heightened volatility typical of the weekly derivatives expiry. On the sectoral front, the Nifty IT index emerged as the biggest drag, with heavyweights such as Infosys, Wipro, TCS, and Tech Mahindra slipping. Analysts warned that the IT sector may witness a tepid earnings season.

On July 10, both Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) and domestic institutional investors (DIIs) were net buyers. DIIs net bought Rs 221 crore in Indian equities while domestic institutional investors (DIIs) net bought Rs 591 crore, according to provisional data on NSE.

Here are the key levels to watch out for in today's session

The 25,300 level is now a crucial make-or-break point; a sustained close below this could further weaken the chart structure. On the flip side, the 25,550–25,600 zone continues to attract selling pressure, marking a critical resistance area that needs to be crossed for any sustainable up move. Additionally, Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) are aggressively increasing their short positions in index futures, indicating caution from institutional participants. Until there's evidence of short covering or long buildup by FPIs, upside momentum is expected to remain limited.

"A firm hurdle has formed near 57,350, where selling pressure has repeatedly emerged. Unless the index closes above this resistance zone, a sustained bullish reversal appears unlikely," says Dhupesh Dhameja of SAMCO Securities.

"Price action remains indecisive, oscillating between the 10-day and 20-day EMAs. The index continues to consolidate within a narrow 500-point band (56,800–57,300), with muted institutional participation. A close below the key support at 56,770 could weaken the structure further, while a sustained move above 57,350 is needed to signal strength. Adding to the cautious outlook, FPIs have been consistently short on index futures, pointing to persistent supply pressure at higher levels," he added.

India VIX slipped 2.24 percent to close at 11.67, remaining well below the psychological mark of 15. This low-volatility regime points to muted investor fear and favours a slow, grinding market rather than volatile price swings. However, it also reflects indecision and a lack of strong directional conviction.

The Put-Call Ratio (PCR) remained steady at 0.69, underscoring a bearish tilt due to elevated call writing.

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