Nomura expects 10% surge in passenger vehicle sales in Feb

TVS Motor could report 19 percent YoY growth in the domestic market.

Passenger vehicle wholesale is likely to have grown 10 percent on-year in February, said brokerage Nomura, while retail sales have seen a growth of around 8 percent.

Nomura added that its survey indicated that waiting periods for popular models have largely remained stable and have come down in some cases. "Discounts have started inching up again month-on-month, after a seasonal dip in January 2024," added the brokerage.

For Maruti Suzuki, Nomura estimated that the automaker's domestic PV wholesales (excluding OE and LCV) would increase around 9 percent YoY, with a wholesale market share of around 43 percent. "We estimate retail growth to be slightly lower and 25,000 inventory addition," it said.

Tata Motors' PV sales could come in around 51,000 units, registering a growth of around 19 percent from the same month last year.

M&M's UV volumes could likely rise 22 percent on-year to around 37,000 units. Nomura believes that M&M will be able to grow well ahead of the industry in FY25, given its healthy order book. However, the automaker's tractor volumes are likely to be down around 13 percent during the month.

On the two-wheeler front, Bajaj Auto could report a growth of 25 percent, led by 50 percent YoY growth in domestic bikes. Two-wheeler exports to be up only 6 percent to around 1.22 lakh units. "Retail sales growth for Bajaj Auto remains ahead of the industry. Further, the company should benefit from the launch of six new upgrades, and ramp-up of Triumph and Chetak," said the brokerage.

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Among others in the space, TVS Motor could report a 19 percent growth in the domestic market, but a whopping 67 percent growth in export volumes in February. Hero MotoCorp volumes are likely to increase by 12 percent, while Royal Enfield (RE) would be up around 5 percent YoY as its retail sales have remained largely flattish.

Nomura said that the healthy momentum continues to be led by a recovery in mass segments and the benefit of a low base. After a series of quarterly price hikes since 2020, there have been no price hikes in the past three months, which should aid affordability.

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