Mehul Kothari
So far, the week has been encouraging for the bulls as the domestic market brushed off the previous week’s losses, ignoring the disappointment from the Union Budget and the fear of coronavirus.
The benchmark indices rallied for four consecutive sessions during this week. At this juncture, Nifty is trading with a gain of 4.08 percent and has retested the 12,150-mark, whereas Nifty Bank has gained 4.97 percent so far during the week.
For the last 3–5 weeks, we have been of the opinion that the zone of 12,400–12,500 should be used to exit long positions due to various negative technical evidence.
Technically, the recent fall towards 11,600 was in line with the expected impact of the weekly and monthly negative divergence in Nifty’s RSI.
Looking at the broader picture, it is evident that Nifty has been trading inside a rising channel and the top of 12,400 was the upper end of that channel.
Due to the correction, Nifty has confirmed a lower bottom formation on the weekly chart after August 2019. Thus, we are of the opinion that the ongoing upward move is just a pullback rally of the fall.
Yet again, higher levels like 12,150–12,300 could be used to exit longs or create short positions. On the downside, the intermediate support is placed at 11,950.
A breach of the same in the coming week could bring the bears back in action. In case of further upside, 12,220–12,300 could be strong resistance for the coming week.
Here are two sell and one buy calls for the next 3-4 weeks:
Bank Nifty Futures | Sell | Target: Rs 29,850 | Stop loss: Rs 32,400 | Downside: 5%
The recent crack dragged the index towards 29,600 mark, which was very close to its head and shoulder breakdown target of 29,500.
Now the index is back above 31,000-mark. For the last couple of months, the index has been underperforming the benchmark index which indicates a lack of strength.
Overall, the monthly and weekly structure has turned feeble for the medium-term. At this juncture, the index is hovering near its 61.8 percent Fibonacci retracement level of the recent fall.
Traders are advised to sell the index between 31,400 and 31700.
Infosys Future | Sell | Target: Rs 725 | Stop loss: Rs 785 | Downside: 6%
Despite such a highly volatile environment, Infosys has been sideways during the past couple of weeks.
At this point in time, the stock seems to be overbought and has stuck exactly at the 78.6 percent Fibonacci retracement of the previous crash from Rs 838 to Rs 615.
On the derivatives front, we have been witnessing some short formations in Infosys futures for the past couple of sessions.
Traders are advised to sell the stock whenever it trades below Rs 765.
HDFC AMC | Buy | Target: Rs 3,700 | Stop loss: Rs 3,100 | Upside: 12%
This stock has been in a strong uptrend for quite some time. In fact, in the recent correction, the stock managed to display strength.
In the recent session, the stock has confirmed a breakout on the daily chart above Rs 3,285. This has eventually confirmed a ‘double bottom’ formation on the daily chart.
The placement of daily RSI suggests that the stock is poised for a fresh upside towards its all-time high of Rs 3,844.
Traders are advised to buy the stock on a dip near Rs 3,300.
(The author is Senior Technical Analyst, IndiaNivesh Securities)
Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not that of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.
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