Gold expected to hold $3,400–$3,600/oz; silver seen at $40–$42/oz for rest of 2025: Axis MF 

Silver-backed ETFs added 95 million ounces in the first half of 2025, which already surpasses the entire inflows of 2024. This pushed total ETF holdings to a record 1.13 billion ounces, valued at over $40 billion.

Precious metals are enjoying one of their strongest rallies in years. Axis Mutual Fund in their latest report projects gold prices in the range of $3,400 to $3,600 per ounce and silver trading between $40 and $42 per ounce through the remainder of 2025.

According to the research note, both metals have been buoyed by a mix of macroeconomic, financial, and geopolitical drivers that continue to support their relevance as portfolio hedges.

Gold near record highs
Gold is hovering near all-time highs at around $3,475 per ounce, up 35–40% year-on-year. Axis notes that the rally has been fuelled by a weaker US dollar, with the Dollar Index slipping from 110 earlier this year to around 97.7, as well as disappointing US job data, which has strengthened market expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut. By mid-August, futures markets were pricing in an 80 percent probability of a September cut and about 60 basis points of easing by year-end.

Political pressure on the Fed, combined with ongoing trade tensions and regional conflicts, has reinforced gold’s safe-haven status, the report notes. On the demand side, central banks added a net 166 tonnes to their reserves in the second quarter, while gold-backed ETFs absorbed more than 400 tonnes in the first half of the year. Investment demand for bars and coins also rose, although jewellery consumption slumped 14% year-on-year as high prices weighed on buyers in India and China.

The report highlights that Indian market have seen gold prices cross the symbolic Rs 100,000 per 10 grams milestone this year. In response, authorities expanded hallmarking standards to include 9-carat gold jewellery, down from the previous 14-carat minimum, to make purchases more affordable. Many Indian consumers have also resorted to profit-taking by selling old jewellery, with plans to buy back later, the report highlughts

Silver at 13-year highs
Silver has surged to $40 per ounce, its highest level in 13 years, up more than 40% year-on-year. Axis highlights that industrial demand remains a critical driver, with over half of global silver consumption linked to sectors such as solar power, semiconductors, and electric vehicles. It adds that demand for silver in photovoltaic (solar) applications reached record levels in 2024 and continues to grow in 2025.

Investment flows have also reinforced the rally.  Silver-backed ETFs added 95 million ounces in the first half of 2025, which already surpasses the entire inflows of 2024. This pushed total ETF holdings to a record 1.13 billion ounces, valued at over $40 billion. Futures market positioning has also turned sharply bullish, with net long positions up 163% compared to end-2024.

Despite the strength, supply constraints remain a key factor. Global silver mine output has been stagnant, and since less than 30% of production comes from dedicated silver mines, higher prices for gold and copper will influence availability. Axis expects the supply deficit to persist through 2025 but narrow in 2026.

Axis MF Research notes that gold and silver remain highly relevant assets for investors navigating global uncertainty adding that their inclusion in portfolios provides diversification benefits at a time of heightened volatility.

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