According to Sudeep Shah of SBI Securities, the overall chart structure suggests that the market is currently positioned in “no-man’s land” — stuck between key support and resistance levels, making directional conviction difficult.
Given the heightened geopolitical uncertainty and muted technical indicators, caution is key, he said in an interview with Moneycontrol.
He is bullish on Max Healthcare Institute, and Tech Mahindra, but believes Manappuram Finance is at overbought levels. "Max Healthcare, as well as Tech Mahindra, has given a horizontal trendline breakout on a daily scale," the Deputy Vice President and Head of Technical and Derivative Research at SBI Securities said.
Do you expect the Nifty 50 to remain in the 24,500–25,200 range in the coming weeks? What is the likelihood of further weakness?
In the first three trading sessions of the week, the benchmark index Nifty hovered near its 8-month high, yet remained confined within a narrow range of just 167 points. This tight consolidation reflected a clear state of indecision and a lack of strong conviction among market participants, as neither bulls nor bears were willing to take aggressive positions.
However, the calm broke on the weekly expiry day, when the index slipped below the consolidation zone, triggering a sharp intraday correction. The downside momentum intensified further on Friday after news reports confirmed that Israel had conducted airstrikes on Iran. This unexpected geopolitical escalation spooked investors and led to a broad-based sell-off across global markets, including a steep gap-down opening in our market.
Amid the global selloff, Nifty once again found support in the 24,500–24,450 zone — a crucial level that has acted as a reliable cushion multiple times over the past 23 trading sessions. Staying true to recent patterns, the index staged a strong rebound from this zone, recovering more than 240 points intraday and managing to close above the 24,700 mark. This recovery, though impressive, was not strong enough to decisively shift the trend, especially with external risks still looming.
Despite the bounce, the index continues to trade below its 20-day EMA, and the daily RSI remains directionless in a sideways range, indicating a lack of strong momentum on either side. The overall chart structure suggests that the market is currently positioned in “no-man’s land” — stuck between key support and resistance levels, making directional conviction difficult. Given the heightened geopolitical uncertainty and muted technical indicators, caution is key. Traders are advised to adopt a wait-and-watch approach in the next couple of sessions until a clear breakout or breakdown confirms the next leg of the move.
Talking about crucial levels, 24,500-24,450 will act as crucial support for the index. If the index slips below the level of 24,450, then the next important support is placed at the 24,200 level. While on the upside, the zone of 24,850-24,900 will act as an immediate hurdle for the index. If the index sustains above 24,900, then it is likely to resume its northward journey. In that case, it is likely to test the level of 25,200, followed by 25,500 in the short term.
Do you anticipate a further correction in the Bank Nifty, or is it entering a consolidation phase before the next leg of an upmove toward 58,000?
At this juncture, Bank Nifty appears to be in a corrective phase rather than a consolidation before a move toward 58,000. After hitting an all-time high of 57,049, it has started forming lower highs and lower lows on the daily chart clearly, indicating short-term weakness. The appearance of a Bearish Engulfing pattern on the weekly chart further confirms the possibility of a near-term reversal.
Additionally, the index has slipped below its 20-day EMA for the first time since May 9, 2025, and the daily RSI has turned bearish signaling limited upside potential for now. Immediate support lies in the 55,100–55,000 zone, and a breakdown below this may drag the index toward 54,400.
Until Bank Nifty reclaims its 20-day EMA zone of 55,700–55,800 and forms a higher low, a sustained upmove toward 58,000 looks unlikely. For now, further correction can't be ruled out.
Do you expect Brent crude oil futures to surpass $80 per barrel in the coming weeks?
Yes, Brent Crude has witnessed a sharp upside rally over the past week, driven by escalating tensions between Israel and Iran. It has surged by over 11%, which has had highest weekly gain since April 2024. The geopolitical unrest has heightened supply concerns in the oil market, leading to a surge in prices.
Technically, it has surged above its 200-day EMA level for the first time after January 2025. Further, the daily RSI is in bullish territory, and it is in rising mode. Going ahead, the zone of $76.50-76.80 will act as an immediate hurdle for the Brent Oil. If it sustains above $76.80, then it is likely to test the $80 level in the short term.
What are your top two stock picks for the upcoming week?
The stock has given a horizontal trendline breakout on a daily scale. This breakout is confirmed by robust volume. As the stock is trading at an all-time high level, all the moving averages and momentum-based indicators suggest strong bullish momentum in the stock. The weekly RSI is surged above 60 mark for the first time after March 2025, and it is in rising trajectory. Hence, we recommend accumulating the stock in the zone of Rs 1,240-1,230 level with the stop-loss of Rs 1,190 level. On the upside, it is likely to test the level of Rs 1,320 in the short term.
The Nifty IT has been strongly outperforming the frontline indices since the last couple of trading sessions. The stock of Tech Mahindra has given a horizontal trendline breakout on a daily scale and started moving higher along with the higher volume. Currently, it is trading above its short and long-term moving averages. These averages are in rising trajectory. Further, the daily RSI is in bullish territory, and it is edging higher, which is a bullish sign. Hence, we recommend accumulating the stock in the zone of Rs 1,660-1,650 level with a stop-loss of Rs 1,600 level. On the upside, it is likely to test the level of Rs 1,760 in the short term.
Do the charts support a bullish view on Cochin Shipyard and Jubilant Ingrevia?
The stock has taken support near its 20-day EMA level and witnessed a minor pullback. Interestingly, the daily RSI has taken a support near 60 mark and thereafter witnessed a smart rebound, which is a bullish sign as per RSI range shift rules. However, for further upside, the stock needs to be sustained above the crucial hurdle of Rs 2,280-2,300 zone.
The stock has given a horizontal trendline breakout on a daily scale. This breakout is confirmed by robust volume. In addition, it has formed a sizeable bullish candle on a breakout day, which adds strength to the breakout. Currently, all the momentum-based indicators and oscillators are showing strong bullish momentum in the stock. Hence, we believe it is likely to continue its northward journey in the next couple of trading sessions.
Is Manappuram Finance currently looking overbought based on technical indicators?
Yes, Manappuram Finance has seen a strong rally over the last six trading sessions. The daily RSI is currently at 86.05, indicating that the stock is in an extremely overbought zone. While the momentum remains strong, such elevated RSI levels often warrant caution.
Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.
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