Rahul Ghose of Octanom Tech & Hedged believes the markets may not take out its record high level any time soon. "Any rally towards 26,000 levels is likely to meet with strong selling delaying the new high possibility, he said in an interview to Moneycontrol.
He further said the 24,450–24,500 zone has historically acted as a psychological and technical support level. "The gap area at 24,160-23,930 is also a potential strong level. Any break below 23,900 could open the gates for further downside."
Technically, he believes the Nifty IT index is showing a probable Hammer candlestick pattern in progress for June. "If the Hammer confirms by June end, the entire IT space would look even more interesting with possibility of indices moving towards prior highs of 42,000," said the Founder & CEO of Octanom Tech & Hedged.
Do you think the Nifty IT index could be the next to rally as part of sector rotation?
Recent market trends suggest that sector rotation is in play, with IT stocks emerging as standout performers. The Nifty IT index jumped 1.7% recently, led by mid-cap IT names such as Oracle Financial, Persistent Systems, LTI Mindtree, and Coforge, rather than the large caps. This shift is significant because, until recently, industrials and capital goods were leading the rally, while IT and other defensive sectors lagged.
Given the current market environment—where risk appetite is dampened by geopolitical concerns and broader market declines—investors may be rotating into sectors with relatively resilient earnings and lower valuations. The IT sector, with its strong export orientation and stable cash flows, fits this profile. However, one should monitor global tech trends and currency movements closely, as these can impact IT sector performance.
Technically, the Nifty IT index has taken a strong support on the quarterly 20 EMA and showing a probable Hammer candlestick pattern in progress for the month of June. If the Hammer confirms by June end, the entire IT space would look even more interesting with possibility of indices moving towards prior highs of 42,000.
Is now a good time to accumulate shares of BSE Limited?
BSE has seen a sharp correction recently, dropping over 7% in two sessions after being included in the Additional Surveillance Measures (ASM) framework, which requires a 100% margin for trades. Despite this, the stock had previously rallied for nine consecutive sessions and remains up 60% year-to-date.
While the short-term technical outlook is clouded by margin requirements and profit booking, the company’s robust financials and strong trading volumes suggest underlying strength. For long-term investors, any further correction could present an attractive accumulation opportunity. However, traders should be cautious of volatility and margin impacts in the near term.
Technically, the BSE monthly chart is showing signs of a gravestone Doji formation on the monthly overbought territory. Gravestone doji indicates selling pressure at higher levels, with a strong possibility of mean reversion. Rs 2,100-2,200 area in BSE could be a good probable entry point for traders & investors.
Do you expect further upside in Karur Vysya Bank and Valor Estate?
Karur Vysya Bank has shown resilience, with its share price rising to Rs 247.77 as of June 13, up 4% from the previous close and demonstrating positive momentum over the past month. The banking sector as a whole has faced headwinds, but selects private banks with strong asset quality and growth prospects may continue to outperform. Karur Vysya Bank’s recent performance and fundamentals suggest potential for further upside, especially if the broader market stabilizes.
Technically too, one can see the stock is breaking out of a symmetrical triangle on weekly charts with decent volumes. Symmetrical triangle breakouts indicate breakouts after a long consolidation & usually sustain when observed on higher time frames like weekly and monthly.
Meanwhile, the real estate sector has seen profit-taking after a strong run, with names like DLF and Lodha pausing for breath. Sector rotation and interest rate sensitivity could weigh on real estate in the short term, but long-term growth prospects remain intact if the macro environment remains supportive.
Valor Estate specifically is also trading close to its resistance level & the reward to risk ratio at current levels does not look attractive. A breakout above Rs 185 could prove to be a good entry point for valor estate.
Do you believe the 24,450–24,500 zone is a strong support level for the Nifty 50? When do you anticipate the index reaching a new record high?
The Nifty 50 recently closed at 24,718.6 after a broad-based decline, reflecting cautious sentiment and selling pressure. The 24,450–24,500 zone has historically acted as a psychological and technical support level. The gap area at 24,160-23,930 is also a potential strong level. Any break below 23,900 could open the gates for further downside.
As for a new record high, market sentiment is currently subdued due to geopolitical concerns and FII-led selling. A sustained recovery would require a shift in global risk appetite, stability in banking and financial stocks, and positive cues from upcoming earnings and policy announcements. If these conditions materialize, a new record high could be achievable in the next 3 months, but volatility is likely to persist in the interim.
26,000-26,200 band is the level from where one saw the previous sharp decline. It is unlikely the markets may take out those level any time soon. Any rally towards 26,000 levels is likely to meet with strong selling delaying the new high possibility.
What is your trading strategy for the Nifty and Bank Nifty in the current market environment?
Given the current market environment, characterized by heightened volatility and sector rotation, my strategy is to remain selective and cautious:
• Nifty: Prefer a range-bound approach, looking for opportunities to buy near key support levels (such as 24,100-23,930 ) and book profits near resistance. Focus on sectors showing resilience, such as IT and select mid-caps.
• Bank Nifty: The index has broken through EMA support lines and is at levels not seen since May, with near-term support at 55,053/54,759 and resistance at 56,002/56,296.One should avoid aggressive long positions until the index shows signs of stabilization. Consider selective stock picking within private banks with strong fundamentals. IDFC First Bank, Karuru Vyasya Bank as discussed above look good.
How are Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) currently positioned in the market?
FIIs have been net sellers recently, contributing to the broad-based decline in the market. Their cautious stance is driven by global risk aversion, geopolitical tensions, and profit-taking after a strong rally. This selling pressure has weighed on large-cap and banking stocks, which are typically FII favourites. A reversal in FII flows will be a key catalyst for any sustained market recovery.
Do you expect the Nifty Midcap 100 and Small cap 100 indices to hit new record highs soon?
The recent performance of small and mid-cap indices has been impressive, with small caps up 39% since the March 2025 low and mid caps up 36%. However; these indices are currently experiencing profit booking and short-term corrections. Both the indices are currently trading near their resistance levels, and one can expect further profit booking in the short-term. The possibility of record high would be only when the broader market stabilizes in the next 3 to 5 months.
Disclaimer: The views and investment tips expressed by investment experts on Moneycontrol.com are their own and not those of the website or its management. Moneycontrol.com advises users to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.
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