Chartist Talk: Nifty to jump 350-400 pts on Trump tariff verdict; 25,950-26,000 crucial, says Sudeep Shah

Sudeep Shah is the Head - Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities

• 25,950–26,000 band stands as an immediate resistance zone for Nifty 50
• Momentum visibly strengthening in both Hitachi Energy and KEI Industries, supported by improving technical structure
• Charts for NTPC and Apar Industries signalling improving momentum

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Following the Supreme Court’s verdict against the Trump-era tariffs, positive global cues could trigger a gap-up opening of around 350-400 points on the Nifty 50, but thereafter how the index reacts around 25,950-26,000 resistance levels will determine the next meaningful directional move, said Sudeep Shah, the Head - Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities in an interview to Moneycontrol.

He is bullish on Indian Bank and Tata Steel. "Indian Bank has given a horizontal trendline breakout on a weekly scale and formed a sizeable bullish candle, while Tata Steel continues to form a higher high–higher low structure on the daily scale and is consolidating at higher levels, reflecting underlying strength," he said.

Gift Nifty futures are signaling a 350–400-point rally on Monday following the Supreme Court ruling against Trump-era tariffs. Do you think the Nifty can break through and sustain above the tough 25,900–26,000 hurdle in the week ahead?

Last week, the benchmark index Nifty oscillated within a narrow 512-point band — its tightest weekly range in the past month — leading to the formation of an NR4 pattern. Despite this contraction in price range, volatility stayed elevated. The first three sessions saw a gradual pullback, but Thursday brought a sharp reversal that wiped out earlier gains. On Friday, the index once again found support near the lower boundary of the range and bounced back. Such choppy price action suggests that a deeper structural shift may be brewing beneath the surface.

Since February 4, Nifty has been consolidating within a well-defined corridor of 26,009–25,373. Even within this confined range, volatility has remained relatively high. Prolonged consolidation has caused key moving averages to flatten, reflecting the absence of a clear trend. Momentum indicators also reinforce the sideways bias, with the daily RSI moving within a compressed band for the last 13 sessions. Historically, such extended compression phases often precede a strong breakout in either direction.

In the near term, the index is likely to continue moving sideways, with stock-specific opportunities remaining active. However, following the Supreme Court’s verdict against the Trump-era tariffs, positive global cues could trigger a gap-up opening of around 350–400 points.

On the levels front, the 25,400–25,350 zone remains a crucial support area, marked by the confluence of multiple previous swing lows. A decisive breach below 25,350 may open the door for a sharper correction toward 25,000. On the upside, the 25,950–26,000 band stands as an immediate resistance zone. How the index reacts around these key levels will determine the next meaningful directional move.

Do you think the Bank Nifty will maintain its upward trajectory and continue to outperform next week as well?

The banking benchmark, Bank Nifty, remains a clear outperformer, continuing to outshine the broader market. While the headline Nifty still trades nearly 3% below its record peak, Bank Nifty is hovering close to its lifetime highs, highlighting the sector’s relative strength. This dominance is also evident in the Bank Nifty–Nifty ratio chart, which has climbed to a 33-month high — signalling that market leadership is firmly tilted toward banking stocks at present.

Technically, with the index trading near historic levels, the overall setup remains decisively bullish. All key moving averages are aligned positively, supporting the prevailing uptrend. The daily RSI is comfortably placed around 60, indicating sustained momentum, while the weekly RSI has advanced further into bullish territory, reinforcing the strength of the broader trend.

Given this constructive price structure and supportive momentum indicators, Bank Nifty appears well-positioned to continue its upward move in the near term. From a levels perspective, the 20-day EMA zone of 60,500–60,400 serves as an important support band.

On the upside, 61,600–61,700 stands as the immediate hurdle. A decisive and sustained move above 61,700 could pave the way for a fresh rally, potentially leading to new record highs and the next phase of bullish expansion.

Is ABB India ready for an upward move after several months of consolidation?

ABB is showing constructive technical signals. The stock gave a downward-sloping trendline breakout on January 29 and has since moved up in a measured manner. During most of February, price action remained confined to a narrow range but importantly continued to hold above its key moving averages, indicating underlying buying interest.

The recent breakout above the Rs 5,583–5,940 consolidation band on February 20, supported by a sharp spike in volumes, adds credibility to the bullish setup. Momentum indicators are also turning favourable, with the DI lines on the ADX beginning to widen in favour of bulls and the RSI witnessing an uptick from the 60 zone, both encouraging signs of strengthening momentum.

As long as the stock sustains above the Rs 5,700–5,670 support zone, the near-term bias is likely to remain positive with scope for further upside.

Is momentum strengthening in Hitachi Energy and KEI Industries?

Momentum is visibly strengthening in both Hitachi Energy and KEI Industries, supported by an improving technical structure. Both stocks have given horizontal trendline breakouts on the daily chart and are now trading comfortably above their key short- and long-term moving averages. Notably, each had slipped below the 200-day moving average in late January but has since staged a strong and steady recovery, a sign of renewed buying interest.

Momentum indicators further reinforce the positive bias: RSI in both counters is rising and holding above the 60 mark, while the ADX setup shows DI+ positioned above DI-, indicating bullish dominance. From a levels perspective, Rs 4,600 remains a crucial support for KEI Industries, while Rs 23200 is the key support for Hitachi Energy India. As long as prices hold above these zones, the ongoing uptrend has room to extend further.

Are the charts signalling strong momentum for NTPC and Apar Industries for the coming week?

Yes, the charts for both NTPC and Apar Industries are signalling improving momentum heading into the coming week.

NTPC has given a breakout of the Rs 361–372 consolidation range on the daily chart, supported by a healthy pickup in volumes. The stock is trading above its key moving averages, reinforcing the positive bias. Importantly, RSI has reclaimed the 60 mark after a brief dip, pointing to renewed bullish momentum. As long as the stock sustains above the 360-support zone, the near-term trend is likely to remain positive.

Apar Industries has also delivered a horizontal trendline breakout on the daily timeframe. The ADX is trending higher, indicating strengthening trend momentum. Additionally, the stock has successfully held the gap-up move from 3 February, which is technically constructive. Sustenance above the Rs 10,000 support level could allow the up move to extend further.

What are your top two stock picks for next week?

Indian Bank

The PSU Bank index has strongly outperformed frontline indices as it has surged by over 5% in the last week. The ratio chart of the index as compared to the Nifty index is at a 98-month high, which shows a strong and sustained uptrend. The stock of Indian Bank has given a horizontal trendline breakout on a weekly scale and formed a sizeable bullish candle.

As the stock is trading at an all-time high, all the moving averages and momentum-based indicators are suggesting strong bullish momentum. Hence, we recommend accumulating the stock in the zone of Rs 938–948 with a stop-loss of Rs 915. On the upside, it is likely to test the level of Rs 1,010 in the short term.

Tata Steel

Tata Steel has witnessed three consecutive bullish monthly closes and is trading near its all-time high, indicating strong buying participation and outperformance. From a technical perspective, the stock continues to form a higher high–higher low structure on the daily scale and is consolidating at higher levels, reflecting underlying strength.

On the indicators front, the stock is trading above its key EMAs, with RSI sustaining above 60, MACD in positive territory, and a rising ADX, indicating strength in the current trend structure. Overall setup suggests a positive structure. Hence, we recommend accumulating the stock in the zone of Rs 207–209 with a stop-loss of Rs 200. On the upside, it is likely to test the level of Rs 225 in the short term.