Nifty expected to open gap up, breaching 23,000 on Monday driven by strong exit poll results

If the buzz on social media is anything to go by then the grey market activity is hinting at the Nifty crossing 23,000 on Monday – a jump of over 500 points or more than two percent from the current levels

All eyes will be on the benchmark indices, especially the 50-share Nifty, when the market opens on Monday – the first trading session after most exit polls predicted a sweep for the BJP – and if experts and grey market indicators are anything to go by, then a 500-600 points jump in a single day doesn’t look like a far-fetched probability.

Market experts believe that there is a combination of factors that are hinting at a huge upside on Monday as the exit polls have come close on the heels of strong GDP numbers and the recent build-up of short positions by foreign investors, which, given the current sentiments, will have to be covered in quick time.

Interestingly, if the buzz on social media is anything to go by then the grey market activity is hinting at the Nifty crossing 23,000 on Monday – a jump of over 500 points or more than two percent from the current levels.

Many were busy discussing on X (Twitter) that the action in Bhuj Nifty – the term used to describe the dabba trading activity in the benchmark index – is clearly indicating a huge gap-up opening on Monday.

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Market participants, meanwhile, concur with a quick listing of positive triggers that are likely to push the market further north on Monday.

“A 2-3 percent upside in the Nifty on Monday looks a highly probable event,” says Paras Bothra, Chief Investment Officer, Ashika India Select Fund, a category 2 AIF.

“One needs to keep in mind that there was a lot of nervousness in the market ahead of the polls as there were mixed signals coming from different parts of the country. The exit polls have predicted a strong position for BJP and now all the cash that has been lying on the sidelines will pour into the market. Investors across categories are expected to press the buy button as now their concern would be missing out on the impending rally. FPIs have also built quite a lot of short positions and short covering will also act a huge catalyst on Monday,” explains Bothra.

Indeed, as last week saw both the benchmarks decline on the back of nervousness ahead of the exit polls. The Nifty closed at 22,530.70, which was two percent lower than where it was during the start of the week with the Sensex also registering a similar dip before ending the week at 73,961.31.

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“Short-term players will swing into action on Monday though the long-term institutional investors will still wait for the final verdict on Tuesday,” says Arun Kejriwal of Kejriwal Research & Information Services.

“While it is highly likely that Monday could see the Nifty breach the 23,000-mark, such sudden spurts are often followed by another 2-3 percent spillover and that could take the Nifty to 23700-23800 levels during the week. The Sensex could even cross 78,000 during the week,” adds Kejriwal.

In a similar context, Ankush Kumar Jain, Director & Fund Manager, StepTrade Share Services believes that all factors are pointing to a strong opening on Monday with the Nifty likely to touch 23,200-23,500 levels during the day.

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