The week beginning March 13 is packed with important national and global macroeconomic events that could have an impact on trading on Dalal Street. In India, CPI inflation and WPI inflation readings for the month of February will be released next week. In addition, India's trade exports, imports, and trade deficit data will also be released.
In February, the most important economic releases in the United States include CPI and Core CPI (March 14), PPI and Core PPI, Retail Sales (March 15), and Industrial Production (March 17). From the UK, the latest unemployment report will be out on March 13. The next release of the final Eurozone CPI data for February is scheduled for March 17. Global markets are also waiting for the European Central Bank’s (ECB) decision on interest rate on March 16.
From China, industrial production, unemployment rate and retail sales for February will be out.
Let's take a look at the key economic data releases. Also, know how major economies' macroeconomic data looked last month.
The following are the key economic data releases scheduled for the week beginning March 13, 2023:
In India, the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation will release February's headline retail inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Monday. The RBI uses CPI data to prepare its bi-monthly monetary policy.
The consumer price index in India increased by 0.46 percent over December 2022 in January 2023. The annual CPI inflation in India accelerated to 6.52 percent in January 2023 compared to 5.72 percent in December. Food inflation jumped to 5.94 percent from 4.19 percent.
WPI Inflation (Feb)
India's annual wholesale price inflation rate declined to 4.73 percent in January 2023 from 4.95 percent in the previous month. On a monthly basis, wholesale prices edged up 0.13 percent in January after a 1.38 percent fall in December.
WPI Manufacturing Inflation (Feb)
The annual WPI manufacturing in India fell to 2.99 percent in January 2023 from 3.37 percent in the previous month.
India WPI Food (Feb)
WPI Food Index YoY in India increased to 2.95 percent in January from 0.65 percent in December of 2022.
India Exports, Imports and Balance of Trade (Feb)
The RBI will release data on foreign trade on March 14. This is captured by the Directorate General of Commercial Intelligence and Statistics (DGCIS) of the Ministry of Commerce & Industry based on flows/movements of goods across the customs frontiers of India.
India's trade deficit was at $17.75 billion in January 2023, up from $17.42 in January 2022. Exports were down 4.6 percent from a year earlier to $32.91 billion in January 2023, and imports dropped 2.4 percent from a year earlier to $50.66 in January 2023. The trade deficit for April-January widened to $232.95 billion from $153.78 billion a year ago.
India Passenger Vehicle Sales (Feb)
Total passenger vehicles sales in India surged by 26.7 percent month-over-month to 298,093 units in January 2023. On a yearly basis, passenger car sales rose 17.2 percent. Passenger Vehicles saw the highest-ever sales in January.
UK Unemployment Rate (Jan)
From the UK, the latest unemployment report will be out on March 13. The unemployment rate in the UK was unchanged at 3.7 percent in October-December 2022 months, according to the data released by Office for National Statistics (ONS). The UK employment rate was estimated at 75.6 percent in October- December 2022.
US CPI (Feb)
The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Core CPI reports for February will be released on Tuesday.
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.5 percent in January on a seasonally adjusted basis, after increasing 0.1 percent in December, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on February 14. The annual inflation rate in the US slowed only slightly to 6.4 percent in January of 2023 from 6.5 percent in December. The food index increased 0.5 percent over the month. The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.4 percent in January. The all-items index increased 6.4 percent for the 12 months ending January.
US Core CPI (Feb)
The core consumer price inflation rate in the United States, which excludes volatile items such as food and energy, went up by 0.4 percent from a month earlier in January 2023 to 5.6 percent year-on-year.
China Industrial Production (Feb)
The data on China's industrial production for February will also be of interest to the international markets. China's industrial production expanded 1.3 percent YoY in December 2022, slowing from a 2.2 percent growth in the previous month. For the whole year of 2022, industrial production rose by 3.6 percent from a year earlier.
China Unemployment rate (Feb)
The unemployment rate in China remained unchanged at 5.50 percent in January from 5.50 percent in December of 2022.
US Core PPI (Feb)
Core producer prices in the United States which exclude cost of food and energy increased 0.5 percent month-over-month in January of 2023, higher than an upwardly revised 0.3 percent in December. Core producer inflation in the United States decreased to 5.4 percent in January of 2023, the lowest since May of 2021 from an upwardly revised 5.8 percent in December.
Japan Exports, Imports and Trade Balance (Feb)
Exports from Japan increased by 3.5 percent YoY to JPY 6,551.2 billion in January 2023, after an 11.5 percent growth in December. Imports to Japan rose 17.8 percent yoy to JPY 10,047.8 billion in January 2023, after a 20.7 percent jump in December.
In 2022, exports grew by 18.2 percent, slowing from 21.5 percent in 2021 amid global cost pressures. In 2022, imports jumped 39.2 percent, much stronger than a 24.8 percent rise in 2021.
Japan's trade deficit widened to a record high of JPY 3,496.6 billion in January 2023 from JPY 2,199.4 billion in the same month a year earlier. In 2022, Japan posted a trade deficit of JPY 19,971.3 billion.
In the last meeting, Governing Council raised the three key European Central Bank interest rates by 50 basis points. Accordingly, the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility were increased to 3.00 percent, 3.25 percent and 2.50 percent respectively, with effect from February 8.
According to President Christine Lagarde ECB is set to raise borrowing costs by another half point.
US Initial Jobless claims (Up to March 11)
The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits fell by 2,000 from the previous week to 190,000 on the week ending February 25.
Foreign Exchange Reserves in India decreased to 5,60,940 USD million on February 24 from 5,61,270 USD million in the previous week.
Eurozone CPI and Core CPI (Feb) final
Eurostat, the Central Statistics Office (CSO) of the European Union, will provide the final data on Eurozone inflation on Friday.
Consumer Price Index (CPI) In the Euro Area increased to 121.23 points in February from 120.27 points in January of 2023. Consumer prices in the Euro Area rose 0.8 percent from a month earlier in February 2023, rebounding from a 0.2 percent decline in January. The consumer price inflation in the Euro Area inched lower to 8.5 percent in February 2023.
The core inflation rate in the Euro Area increased for a third consecutive month to hit a fresh record high of 5.6 percent in February of 2023, compared to 5.3 percent in January. Compared to January, the core CPI which excludes prices of energy, food, alcohol and tobacco went up 0.8 percent.
(With inputs from Agencies)
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