Warmer winter could impact crop yields, delay moderation in food inflation: Experts

India’s retail inflation stood at a 14-month high of 6.2 percent in October, primarily driven by elevated food inflation

India is expected to experience a milder winter this year, which experts warn could impact crop yields and delay the anticipated moderation in food inflation. A warmer-than-usual winter could disrupt agricultural cycles, adversely affect crop production, and contribute to food price volatility in the months ahead.

Despite a healthy increase in the area sown for rabi crops compared to last year, experts are raising concerns about how warmer winter temperatures could dampen yields. “Although the area sown for rabi crops has witnessed a healthy uptick vis-a-vis year-ago levels by end-November 2024, a warmer winter could dampen crop yields and output. This could affect the speed of moderation in inflation across some food items,” Aditi Nayar, Chief Economist at ICRA, told Moneycontrol.

Former Agriculture Secretary, Siraj Hussain, added that delayed wheat sowing, particularly in Punjab due to the harvesting of paddy, could amplify the impact of high winter temperatures. “Abnormally high temperatures in winters may have an adverse impact on most varieties of wheat sown in Punjab and Haryana. If temperatures in February and March are also much higher than the normal range, the yield of wheat may be adversely affected. There may be a similar impact on other crops like mustard and chana,” Hussain told Moneycontrol.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast above-normal minimum temperatures for most parts of the country during the winter season (December 2024 to February 2025). Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, Director General of IMD, had earlier said, “The forecast of a relatively warmer winter comes after the country experienced the second warmest November since 1901, with the average maximum temperature clocking 29.37 degrees Celsius.”

The IMD also expects fewer coldwave days than usual, attributed to the absence of western disturbances. Mumbai, for instance, recorded a maximum temperature of 37.3 degrees Celsius on December 4, marking its hottest December day in 16 years.

Warm conditions have already begun to affect agricultural activity, particularly vegetable sowing. Indra Shekhar Singh, an agri-policy analyst, highlighted, “November was pretty warm, and we have to see how warm December gets. This has also impacted wheat sowing in many areas and vegetable sowing. Some vegetables that were sown earlier are experiencing biotic stresses. Farmers without access to water or irrigated land are likely to be the most hit.”

Singh also noted that previous instances of higher temperatures had significantly impacted wheat harvests and that the production and harvest of vegetables such as tomatoes were already showing signs of stress.

Despite concerns about crop yields, some experts believe that India’s comfortable buffer stocks could mitigate the impact on food inflation. M Govinda Rao, former member of the 14th Finance Commission, said, “A warm winter could have an adverse impact on the yield of food crops. Even so, given the comfortable buffer stocks, it may not have much of an impact on food inflation.”

India’s retail inflation stood at a 14-month high of 6.2 percent in October, primarily driven by elevated food inflation, particularly in vegetables like tomatoes, onions, and potatoes. However, the Finance Ministry’s monthly economic review for October noted that food inflation is expected to ease in the coming months, supported by a likely bumper kharif harvest.

Ajay Kakra, Associate Partner at Food & Agriculture Advisory, Forvis Mazars India, provided a broader perspective. “The impact of a warm winter on food inflation cannot be overlooked, as it disrupts traditional agricultural cycles and reduces agricultural output through poor germination, low moisture uptake, variable plant growth, and increased disease infestation. As per an estimate by the Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR), with every degree rise in temperature, India's wheat production has been reduced by 4-5 million tonnes. However, with India’s agriculture sector showing resilience – bolstered by record-breaking food grain production, favourable monsoon conditions, advancements in digitisation, and investments in research – we remain optimistic about stabilising food inflation. Leveraging innovations, promoting sustainable practices, and strengthening export strategies will be crucial to mitigating climate-related disruptions and ensuring long-term food security and profitability.”

The interplay of a warm winter, disrupted agricultural cycles, and resilient buffer stocks will determine how food inflation trends in the near future. As stakeholders continue to monitor the situation, innovations in agriculture and robust planning remain key to mitigating potential disruptions.