Fears of a third COVID-19 wave taking over India seem to be coming true just days into 2022.
The total number of COVID-19 cases rose by 58,097 in the last 24 hours, as per a government update on January 5. While this is not even a fifth of the record daily high posted in the midst of the second wave in early May 2021, the number is not to be sneezed at.
For one, it is the highest daily rise in new cases in six-and-a-half months. Second, the increase of over 55 percent from the previous 24 hours is the highest since the first week of April 2020, when new cases numbered in a few hundred. Third, the country has now experienced double-digit percentage increases in new daily cases in eight of the last nine days, with the average daily increase being 27.3 percent.
Such numbers were not seen even in the deadly second wave. Between early April 2021, when new daily cases first crossed the 1-lakh mark, and May 7, 2021, when the second wave was at its peak, the average daily increase in new cases was a mere 4.2 percent.
But the experience so far in Delhi, and globally, offers hope.
In South Africa, which first reported a case of Omicron, the surge in cases caused by the new variant seems to have lasted a single month. On December 30, the South African government said all indicators suggested the peak of the wave was likely over.
Assuming a similar cycle for India, could the current surge in cases peak in January itself?
Forecasters seem to think so, at least as far as the US is concerned. On January 3, the US posted a record 10.83 lakh new cases. However, The Washington Post reported on January 4 that several infectious-disease experts see the current wave peaking as early as this weekend to perhaps later this month.
The key, though, might lie in the number of persons being admitted in hospitals. In the US, total hospitalisations on January 3 crossed the 1-lakh mark for the first time since September. But they remain below the peak of 1.42 lakh hit in January 2021. The severity of Omicron, or lack thereof, is crucial.
While only 2,135 cases of Omicron have been recorded so far in India, the new variant has been detected in 84 percent of samples from the capital, the state's minister of health Satyendar Jain said on January 4. And although there are no doubts about Omicron's transmissibility, its milder symptoms perhaps make it more relevant to look at hospitalisations.
In Delhi, the number of new COVID-19 cases reported shot up to 5,481 on January 4 from 290 on December 25. At the same time, the bed occupancy rate at hospitals and dedicated COVID care and health centres increased to 6.2 percent from 1.7 percent.
Contrast these numbers with those from early in the second COVID-19 wave. From 368 on March 15, 2021, the number of daily new cases in Delhi rose fewer than five times to 1,819 on March 31, 2021. Despite the number of daily new cases remaining below the 2,000 mark, the bed occupancy rate nearly tripled in a fortnight to 15.9% on March 31, 2021.
Like Delhi, only a fraction of new cases in Mumbai are severe this time around.
During January 2-4, Mumbai saw 27,005 new COVID-19 cases. Of these, 7 percent required hospitalisation. Further, of those who were hospitalised, just over 9 percent have required oxygen support. As such, only 0.66 percent of fresh cases in Mumbai between January 2 and January 4 have required the aid of oxygen.
Overall, the bed occupancy rate in Mumbai stood at 14.7 percent on January 4, up from 7.8 percent on December 31.
A change in focus from the COVID-19 case load to hospitalisations has already been discussed elsewhere. CNN reported in mid-December 2021 that US President Joe Biden's advisers were encouraging the administration to shift "public attention away from the total number of infections and toward serious cases only".
But perhaps it is too early to talk of hospitalisations as the key metric. After all, symptoms can become severe even after a week or so. With the surge in cases in India being rather recent, the amount of data available is far from sufficient.
The key, however, remains vaccination. According to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, COVID-19-associated hospitalisation rate was eight times higher for unvaccinated adults in January-November 2021. As Anthony Fauci, President Biden's chief medical adviser and one of the leading faces from the scientific community in the fight against COVID-19, told ABC News on January 2: "The real bottom line that you want to be concerned about is, are we getting protected by the vaccines from severe disease leading to hospitalisation?'
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