India began diversifying away from China before 2025 halt in fertiliser shipments

India's fertiliser shift had come before China's halt

China’s suspension of di-ammonium phosphate (DAP) fertiliser exports to India in 2025 may place short-term pressure on kharif season supplies, but the overall impact is expected to be muted. A Moneycontrol analysis shows that India had already begun diversifying its import base well before the halt, unlike critical minerals and rare earth magnets where it continued to have a high dependence on China.

In FY19, China accounted for 47 percent of India’s DAP imports. That share dropped to 34 percent before China’s halt in 2023 and fell sharply to 18.5 percent in FY25, according to trade data. No shipments were recorded from China during the first five months of 2025.

In the meantime, other exporters have stepped in to fill some of the void. Saudi Arabia has emerged as India’s top DAP supplier, with its share rising from 28.3 percent in FY24 to 41.6 percent in FY25.

The share is expected to increase further. In July 2025, India signed a long-term agreement with Saudi Arabia to cater to a third of its domestic demand.

Morocco, another key player, expanded its presence to 22.5 percent in FY25, up from 18.7 percent in the previous year.

Other suppliers have played smaller, yet stable roles. Russia accounted for 5.9 percent of India’s DAP imports in FY25, while Jordan contributed 5.2 percent. Australia and other countries have also featured intermittently in India’s shifting fertiliser import mix.

Experts caution that the absence of Chinese fertiliser may lead to near-term inventory stress, especially ahead of the kharif sowing window.

“While China’s unofficial halt on speciality fertiliser exports may cause near-term disruption, particularly during the ongoing kharif season, it highlights India’s structural overdependence on a single supplier for critical agricultural inputs such as DAP and speciality formulations,” said Sachin Mathur, Associate Director at CareEdge Ratings.

India imports over half of its DAP requirements, making it highly vulnerable. However, industry observers suggest the current challenge may serve as an inflection point in India’s pursuit of “Atmanirbharta” (self-reliance) in critical inputs.

“With China pausing fertiliser supplies, Indian manufacturers are stepping up to bridge the gap by increasing domestic output… this challenge is reinforcing India’s commitment to achieving self-reliance in critical supply chains, especially those linked to food security and strategic industries,” said Priti Agarwal, Senior Director at CareEdge Ratings.