The country's biggest mortgage lender HDFC Limited (HDFC) is scheduled to declare its financial results on May 2 for the quarter ended March 2022.
Experts are a divided lot about the growth in the lender’s bottomline as some expect its profit after tax (PAT) to decline 2-4 percent on-year, while some predict a 7 percent on-year growth in PAT at Rs 3,000–3,400 crore for the quarter.
Net interest income (the difference between the interest earned and interest expended) is likely to grow 7 percent to Rs 4,330 crore.
HDFC had reported a PAT of Rs 3,180 crore on a NII of Rs 4,027 crore during the corresponding period of previous financial year.
The profit during the quarter ending December 2021 came in at Rs 3,261 crore when its NII was reported at Rs 4,284 crore.
Brokerage views
Motilal Oswal Financial Services
The brokerage expects the NII to grow 7 percent on-year to Rs 4,310 crore for the reported quarter aided by a healthy 13 percent year-on-year growth in assets under management (AUM). “We see strong disbursements in individual loans with early momentum in non-individual segment as well,” the brokerage said in its report.
It expects the core operating profit to rise 4.4 percent on year to Rs 4,235 crore from Rs 4,056 crore. The core operating profit in the previous quarter stood at Rs 4,112 crore.
“We expect net interest margin (NIM) to contract 10bps QoQ due to moderation in blended yields and negative carry from LCR (liquidity coverage ratio) requirements,” the brokerage said.
Motilal Oswal forecasts a PAT of Rs 3,406 crore with a YoY growth of 7.1 percent. On a sequential basis, the profit is seen increasing by 4.4 percent.
It recommends investors to watch out for asset quality commentary in the corporate segment and commentary on non-individual segment growth.
Kotak Institutional Equities
Kotak forecasts the NII of Rs 4,372 crore, growing by 8.6 percent on-year and by 2 percent sequentially.
“We expect loan growth to remain steady at 4 percent QoQ, translating to 13 percent YoY growth in Q4FY22,” it said in its report.
NIM is seen deteriorating by 13 bps on-year and by 8 bps on quarter to 3.2 percent.
The brokerage pegs the PAT at Rs 3,028 crore for the quarter declining by 4.8 percent on year and by 7 percent on quarter.
Sharekhan
The brokerage expects the NII for the quarter to increase by 6.4 percent on year to Rs 4,285 crore while on a sequential basis, it is likely to remain flat.
“Disbursement for individual loans is expected to be strong and non-individual segment is likely to gain momentum,” a report from the brokerage said.
It expects a 28 bps YoY contraction in NIM at 3 percent while on a sequential basis, the NIM is likely to remain flat with a marginal improvement of 6 bps.
“Margin is likely to contract due to moderation in yields aided by lower home loan rates and excess liquidity carry,” the brokerage added.
It expects the PAT to decline 1.4 percent on year to Rs 3,136 crore. Compared to the previous quarter, the PAT is lower by 3.8 percent.
HDFC stock ended Rs 5.70 higher at Rs 2,229.70 on April 29 at the National Stock Exchange. The stock has declined 12 percent during the past one year and has declined 4.6 percent during the past one month.
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