Q3FY13 Preview: Dolat upbeat on M&M, Tata Motors, Hero Moto

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26 Aug, 2025 12:21

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Dolat Capital has come with its December`12 quarterly earning estimates for auto sector. According to research firm, demand for petrol vehicles continues to be under pressure despite heavy discounts.

Passenger Vehicles: Despite the festive season, the quarterly sales performance of the passenger vehicle segment remained muted. Till December 2012, the car segment and the MPV segment has grown ~1% YoY each. The smartest growth has been in the UV segment which is up ~62% YoY. Maruti Suzuki’s market share stands at 37.6% (well below their desired target of ~40%). M&M saw an increase in its market share from 9.6% to 11.5% during the same period. Both passenger car leaders Hyundai Motors and Tata Motors too have lost market share ~100bps each. While Maruti Suzuki gained market share in the UV segment (from ~2% to ~15% YoY), it lost market share in the MPV segment (from ~64% to ~50%) during the April-December period.

Commercial Vehicles: The commercial vehicles has grown ~3% YoY in FY13 (till December). While M&HCV sales were down ~16% YoY, the LCV sales were up ~17% YoY. In the M&HCV segment, while Ashok Leyland (240bps) and Eicher Motors (220bps) gained market share in FY13 (till November), Tata Motors lost (-440bps). In the LCV segment, while Ashok Leyland gained market share (660bps), with its product ‘Dost’, Piaggio Vehicles (-250bps), Force Motors (-90bps), Tata Motors (-100bps) were down.

Three Wheelers: The three-wheeler sales gained a little momentum with sales up ~7% YoY during the April-December period . Bajaj Auto gained market share from ~43.0% to ~44.5%.

Two Wheelers: Two-wheeler sales were up ~4%YoY in FY13 (till December). The scooter sales were up ~20%YoY, motorcycle sales were flattish, moped sales were up 3%YoY. In the scooter segment, Honda (HMSI) lost market share (from ~54% in June 2012 to ~49% in December 2012. During the same period, Hero Motocorp (HMC) gained market share from ~14% to ~17%. In the motorcycle segment, while HMC lost market share (-270bps), Bajaj Auto lost (-120bps) and HMSI gained (430bps) market share.

Sales remained muted despite the festive season. The demand for petrol vehicles continues to be under pressure despite heavy discounts. Even some of the diesel models are ready available, as we learn from our dealer checks. With the launch of Quanto by M&M and restoring of production at Maruti’s Ertiga, we expect demand for UV segment to be robust. The auto sector stocks have rallied on expectation of demand revival in the coming months on the back of lower interest rates and better economic environment. However, we continue to be cautious due to rising fuel prices, uncertainty over levy of excise duty on diesel engine cars and sales pushed due to heavy discounts. We continue to prefer M&M and Tata Motors over Maruti Suzuki. In the two wheeler segment, due to recent underperformance, we prefer Hero Motocorp over Bajaj Auto.

Company	Sales (Rs Mn)			PAT (Rs mn)
	Q3FY13E	QoQ %	YoY %	Q3FY13E	QoQ %	YoY %
Hero Motocorp	60,505	16.6	3.8	5,808	31.8	-3.8
Bajaj Auto	53,166	6.9	0.9	8,025	8.3	10.6
TVS Motor	17,834	5.5	-10.5	607	34.3	-20.7
Maruti Suzuki	109,110	31.4	39.3	5,343	134.9	122.2
M&M	107,386	9.4	45.9	8,430	-6.5	14.3
Tata Motors	440,794	13.6	32.1	27,826	49	112.7
Ashok Leyland	24,892	-24.5	-19.6	521	-63.5	-66.2
Eicher Motors	15,580	5	7.4	553	-16.3	-25.1
Apollo Tyres	34,416	2	19.9	1,529	-0.2	95.7
Bharat Forge	9,318	7.4	2.4	1,087	5.7	2.1
Exide Inds	15,484	1.8	31.7	1,517	26.2	196.6

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