Brace for 'weak' Indian Q1 earnings, says BofA-ML
Indian corporate earnings results for Jan-March 'should be weak', warns Bank of America-Merrill Lynch, adding that it sees potential for a market correction.
July 10, 2012 / 13:09 IST
Indian corporate earnings results for Jan-March "should be weak," warns Bank of America-Merrill Lynch, adding that it sees potential for a market correction.
BofA-ML estimates headline profit growth for fiscal Q1 "is likely" to be to 13.7%, but 9.7% if excluding State Bank of India.
The investment bank says estimates sales growth of 16.7% across its coverage universe, calls it the lowest sales growth in the last 10 quarters.
Indian shares fell for a second day in a row on Monday as HDFC fell ahead of its earnings results this week, with sentiment also hit after US jobs data and falling inflation in China reinforced concerns about the global economy.
Corporate earnings results, and more importantly, the guidance given could be key in determining whether India's main stock indices can sustain their double digit gains this year. The rallies have come despite challenging fiscal and economic outlooks that have dented the rupee currency.
A shortfall of nearly 50% of the average rainfalls in the seasonal monsoon period so far has become the latest domestic worry, given worries about the impact on rural consumers.
BofA-ML says SBI, ICICI Bank , HDFC Bank , Infosys and Tata Motors are expected to be the key contributors of growth.
Infosys, the country's second-biggest software services exporter, fell 0.3% ahead of its results on Thursday, though larger rival Tata Consultancy Services, which reports on the same day, added 0.9%.
However, Reliance Industries, Tata Steel, Hindalco Industries to drag down growth, BoA-ML forecasts.
Drilling down into specific forecasts, BoA-ML expects results buys to be ICICI Bank, HCL Tech , Apollo Tyres , and Jaiprakash Hydro Power .However, among disappointments BoA-ML sees Reliance Industries, IDEA , and Larsen & Toubro. Discover the latest Business News, Sensex, and Nifty updates. Obtain Personal Finance insights, tax queries, and expert opinions on Moneycontrol or download the Moneycontrol App to stay updated!
