Assembly elections 2023: Fate of Tripura, Meghalaya and Nagaland to be decided on March 2

Political observers say the frequent visits of BJP’s central leadership has helped the party in garnering support on ground in north-eastern states.

Stage is all set for Assembly election results of three north-eastern states – Tripura, Meghalaya and Nagaland, which went to polls on February 16 and 27.
The votes for the high-stakes poll battle will be counted on March 2 amidst heightened security in place.

Pollsters have predicted a comfortable majority for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its alliance in Nagaland and Tripura, while Meghalaya is predicted to witness a hung assembly.Tripura

BJP and its alliance partner Indigenous Peoples Front of Tripura (IPFT) are seeking a second consecutive term in Tripura. In 2018, the same alliance had wrested control from CPI (M), who had been in power in the state for more than thirty years.

Votes for the 60-member House will be counted from 7 am, in which fate of 259 candidates in the fray will be decided. The state has witnessed a voter turnout of 89.95 percent.

Ahead of the results, Election Commission has been organising peace meetings in over 3,000 polling stations to ensure there is no violence when votes will be counted.

This year, barring a few “stray incidents” of violence on the day of polling, the assembly election has been peaceful in the state, which has relatively witnessed violence during polls.

First election fight of 2023: Full coverage

BJP-IPFT is facing challenge from an alliance of the Left and Congress, and the Tipra Motha, which has emerged as the newest entrant in the political battle led by led by royal scion Pradyot Bikram Manikya Debbarma.

The Left Front is contesting 47 seats and Congress is contesting 13 seats. Trinamool Congress is contesting 28 seats and there are 58 independent candidates.

Meghalaya

Election Commission held election for 59 seats on February 27. Polling to the Sohiong Assembly constituency was postponed following the demise of United Democratic Party (UDP) candidate from the seat HDR Lyngdoh.

Of the 60 constituencies in the state, 36 constituencies fall in Khasi, Jaintia Hills region, while 24 are in Garo Hills region. Current term of the Meghalaya Legislative Assembly will conclude on March 15.

The majority mark to form government in the state is 31. Exit poll by many agencies have showed that Meghalaya is set to witness a hung assembly with chief minister Conrad Sangma’s National People's Party (NPP) projected to win the most seats in the state, but short of the half-way mark.

West Bengal chief minister led Trinamool Congress may emerge as a game changer as it is expected to win the second highest seats in the state.

The poll-panel has deployed 119 companies of Central Armed Police Forces (CAPF) in Meghalaya for smooth poll process. As per Election Commission, there are 375 candidates in the contest for the 60 Assembly seats.

233 candidates are from national parties, 69 are from regional parties and 44 are independent contestants. The state witnessed voter turnout of 76.27 percent.

Nagaland

Nagaland has registered 85 percent voter turnout and 183 candidates are in the fray for 60-member House.

Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Nationalist Democratic Progressive Party (NDPP) have forged alliance and looking to retain power in the state.

BJP has fielded candidates on 20 seats, while the NDPP is fighting on 40 seats. Meanwhile, the Naga People's Front (NPF) and Congress are contesting in 22 and 23 seats respectively.

As per Election Commission, of the total 183 183 candidates, only four are women. Since establishment of the state in 1963, Nagaland has seen 14 Assembly elections, but a woman has not been elected MLA ever.

This would be the first times, if women candidates are elected to power.

Political comments

Political observers say the frequent visits of BJP’s central leadership has helped the party in garnering support on ground in north-eastern states.

“When top leadership hits the ground, people definitely get a feel that party is more concerned about their welfare. The BJP has already carried out many developmental works in Tripura and other states, besides ensuring law and order,” said political analyst Rasheed Kidwai.

He attributed rise of BJP in north-eastern states to absence of Congress and Left leaders on the ground.

“If BJP wins in northeast region, it will help the party to gain support in four major states including Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Karnataka. The message goes that people believe in the leadership of Narendra Modi,” Kidwai added.

Commenting on the prediction, Pradeep Gupta of Axis My India said, “The delivery of social welfare schemes particularly free ration would be one of the major reasons for the BJP victory. Moreover, the Centre’s announcement of connecting northeast state capitals with air and rail connectivity before 2024, is a strong cause of support as well as commuting is a major concern in the hilly states.”

He also said that the regional parties’ have history of not providing fierce competition, and the Left lack of confidence in its reflection of alliance with Congress, the saffron party and its alliance is in a sweet spot, he added.