Karnataka Elections: History repeats, Bommai gets knockout punch from Siddaramaiah-Shivakumar jodi

Congress leaders Siddaramaiah (left) and DK Shivakumar.

Congress is storming back to power bagging/leading in 132 seats according to latest trends, followed by BJP with 66 seats and JD(S) 22 seats. Congress increased its vote share by 4 percentage points, BJP lost 0.3 percentage points from its 2018 vote share while JD(S) lost a big 5.1 percentage point vote share. Congress largely gained at the expense of JD(S).

While there was visible anti-incumbency against Chief Minister Basvaraj Bommai’s government, with only 15 percent wanting to see him as next CM vis-a-vis 27 percent for Siddramaiah, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s last push helped BJP increase vote share by 2-3 percent as per Axis MyIndia exit poll. However, it was not sufficient to cross Congress party’s vote share at an overall level.

A large section of voters thought that Congress’s Siddaramaiah government was the best among the past four governments which helped the grand old party.

How Regions, Communities Voted

Out of six regions in Karnataka, BJP is doing extremely well only in the smallest region of Coastal Karnataka. In all the other five regions including its stronghold Lingayat belt of Northern Karnataka, Congress has trumped BJP.

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While BJP seems to have increased its vote share in the Old Mysuru region, this is helping the Congress as the Vokkaliga vote gets divided. JD(S) has lost 8 percent community support which is one of the prime reasons for its dismal performance.

In terms of caste/community support BJP has not been able to expand its base beyond Lingayats and Brahmins, its reservation rejig for SC-ST has not worked. However, even after the exodus of Lingayat leaders like Jagdish Shettar and Laxman Savadi, BJP’s community support is intact at 64 percent.

Siddaramaiah has been able to revive and consolidate the AHINDA social block comprising SC-ST, Kurubas, Muslims and OBCs. The banning of Bajrang Dal seems to have benefitted the Congress with significant Muslim consolidation in its favour (88 percent, a +10 percentage point swing from 2018).

The Female Voter Matters

Congress was able to give a class narrative to the caste arithmetic. Its promises seem to have worked with people in the lower strata where it is leading BJP by 7-11 percentage points. In-fact promises of Congress and inflation are amongst the Top 5 voting reasons for the party (excluding development).

The female voter has emerged as the kingmaker in state after state elections. Women outnumber men in half of Karnataka seats. The promise of Rs. 2,000 per month to women head of family, 200 units of free electricity and 10kg free rice per month for BPL families have tilted the scales in favour of Congress. Female share is 11 percent more for Congress than BJP as per Axis.

The urban Bengaluru region has again eluded the BJP, third time in a row, despite roadshows by the PM. Urban voter apathy, non-fulfillment of promises, corruption charges, and people no longer trusting BJP as a party with a difference, have made matters worse for the saffron party.

JD(S) Squeezed Out

The meltdown of the JD(S) in the state, specially their backyard, Old Mysuru region, has dented BJP’s prospects. We have in our pre-poll Karnataka series highlighted how BJP doing well in OMR could actually help the Congress. JD(S) lost SC vote (-4 percentage points) after break up with BSP, upper caste vote (-6 percentage points) and Vokkaliga vote (-8 percentage points) to both Congress and BJP.

Congress was also able to consolidate the minority vote after a polarised environment created due to its promise of banning Bajrang Dal in its manifesto. In hindsight it seems to be a well calculated move as Hindutva doesn’t work for BJP, except for in Coastal Karnataka.

BJP now needs to rebuild the party and get used to life after Yediyurappa in Karnataka. Congress needs to sort out the leadership issue harmoniously, while JD(S) faces an existential threat like BSP in Karnataka. In a highly bipolar election it could get further squeezed out.

Amitabh Tiwari is a former corporate and investment banker-turned political strategist and commentator. Twitter: @politicalbaaba. Views are personal and do not represent the stand of this publication.