Uttar Pradesh Exit Poll: BJP-led NDA to improve its 2019 tally with 68-71 seats, INDIA bloc to bag 9-12 seats; predicts News18 exit poll

Uttar Pradesh

Uttar Pradesh- a state that is supposed to power BJP's dream of 'Mission 400', is predicted to give BJP-led NDA  between 68-71 seats, according to News18 mega exit polls. Read purely in terms of gains, the numbers are certainly a mark-up from 2019, when the BJP got 62 seats, but it does not surpass the 2014 tally when the saffron party stormed to power at the Centre on the basis of its performance in Uttar Pradesh, bagging 71 seats. The mega exit polls gives 9-12 seats to INIDA bock (Congress and Samajwadi Party) in the state.

According to the polls, NDA's vote share will be 49 per cent, whereas INDIA bloc's vote share is expected to be around 34 per cent and other parties with 17 per cent vote share.

With its 80 parliamentary seats, Uttar Pradesh holds significant importance for all political parties vying for power in New Delhi. Until the final phase of polling, the electorate were rather tight-lipped on expressing their electoral preference by giving an absolute number to any party or an overt articulation for any outfit.

In 2019, the saffron party won 62 seats; the BSP and SP 10 and 5 respectively. The Congress, nearly mute spectator of the Battle of UP, lost Amethi while retaining Rae Bareli. The big achievement in 2019 was that the saffron party managed to increase its vote share.

In 2014, it won the state with 42.3% of the votes. It increased its vote share to 49.5% in 2019 and, in fact, crossed 50% if one considers that it contested only 78 seats. In 2014, the BJP had won 71 seats while Apna Dal (Sonelal) had secured victory in two constituencies.

The BJP-led alliance which includes the Rashtriya Lok Dal, the Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party, and the NISHAD Party, is striving to improve its tally, riding on the positive sentiment generated after the inauguration of the Ram Mandir and a divided Opposition with the Bahujan Samaj Party not part of the INDIA bloc. The BJP is contesting 75 seats, the RLD and SBSP two each, and the NISHAD party just one seat.

The BSP is battling an existential crisis with poor performance in Vidhan Sabha elections, where it bagged only one seat with its vote share dropping by nine percentage points to 13 per cent.  The party is trying to protect its turf, prevent an erosion in its core Dalit vote bloc, and shed the “BJP’s B-team” tag.

In the 2019 elections, the SP, the BSP, and the RLD created a Mahagathbandhan to take on the BJP, catering to Muslims, Yadavs, Dalits, and Jats. Though the BJP's vote share improved from 43 per cent in 2014 to 50 per cent in 2019, its tally declined from 71 to 62 seats. The alliance registered a 39 per cent vote share (BSP 19, SP 18, and RLD two).

The BSP and the SP contested together in 2019 in 37 seats each. They received identical vote shares of 18-19 per cent at the state level, implying a 50-50 share in the overall Mahagathbandhan vote share of 38 per cent. Hypothetically, if they were contesting separately, then the alliance would not have been able to win a single seat. Only the Congress would have retained Raebareli.