Mumbai ka king kaun? Can Mahayuti repeat its 2019 performance?

The number of major political parties has increased from four to six due to splits in the Shiv Sena and NCP. Courtesy: X | @narendramodi

Mumbai has six Lok Sabha seats, all of which were won by the Shiv Sena-BJP alliance (now Mahayuti with NCP) in 2019. However, the political landscape in Maharashtra has undergone significant changes since then. The absence of the Modi wave from 2014 and the lack of patriotic fervor following the Pulwama attack in 2019 set a different stage for the upcoming elections. Additionally, the number of major political parties has increased from four to six due to splits in the Shiv Sena and NCP. Prakash Ambedkar’s Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi (VBA) has not allied with the All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM), and Raj Thackeray, previously critical of Modi, is now supporting the BJP. Let’s examine how these changes might impact the political alliances in Mumbai.

South Mumbai: Shiv Sena (UBT) has once again fielded two-time MP Arvind Sawant. He is up against Yamini Jadhav of the Shiv Sena (ESS). Traditionally, the Congress has fielded members of the Deora family here, but this time, the seat has been allocated to Shiv Sena (UBT) due to a seat-sharing arrangement. The Muslim voters, who constitute about 25% of the electorate, are crucial. While Mahayuti relies on the Gujarati-Marwari and North Indian votes, Sawant's victory hinges on whether Muslim voters, who have historically supported the Congress, will back him.

South-Central Mumbai: This constituency is a prestige battle for the Shiv Sena (UBT). Despite the party’s headquarters, Sena Bhavan, being located here, the incumbent MP Rahul Shewale belongs to the rival Shiv Sena faction. Shiv Sena (UBT) has fielded Anil Desai to reclaim this bastion. The redevelopment of Dharavi, one of Asia's largest slums, has become a contentious issue, with Shiv Sena (UBT) opposing the current implementation methods.

North-Central Mumbai: The BJP is contesting this seat with eminent lawyer Ujjwal Nikam, known for his role as a Special Public Prosecutor in high-profile terror cases. Nikam replaces Poonam Mahajan, who reportedly faced anti-incumbency sentiments. Nikam's main opponent is Varsha Gaikwad of the Congress, who, despite being from the neighboring South-Central Mumbai, was asked to contest here due to Shiv Sena’s insistence on fielding a candidate in South-Central. The candidature of Varsha has upset another Congressman Arif Naseem Khan, who was preparing to contest from the seat. After announcement of Varsha’s candidacy, a riled Khan commented that the Congress wants votes of Muslim but doesn’t gives tickets to them.

The Muslim electorate, significant in this constituency, remains a critical factor, with BJP banking on Baba Siddique, a recent defector from Congress to NCP (Ajit).

North-West Mumbai: This seat has seen considerable drama. Gajanan Kirtikar of Shiv Sena (ESS) won here in 2019, but his son Amol Kirtikar, loyal to Uddhav Thackeray, has been fielded by Shiv Sena (UBT). Initially expected to contest against his father, Amol now faces Ravindra Waikar of Shiv Sena (ESS). Waikar till very recently was an Uddhav loyalist, but switched to Eknath Shinde’s camp after getting entangled in a case of Enforcement Directorate (ED). Questions have been raised whether Waikar is contesting elections willingly and sincerely.

Former Congress leader Sanjay Nirupam too was keen to contest from the seat, however, as per the seat sharing arrangement in the MVA, the Shiv Sena (UBT) got the seats. An enraged Nirupam made certain statements against the party after which he was sacked. Nirupam was then inducted by the Shiv Sena (ESS), but candidacy was not given to him.

North-East Mumbai: It is one of the most troubled constituencies in Mumbai and has witnessed incidents of violence since the electoral process began. The constituency has a large Gujarati population, and some commentators perceive the contest here as Gujarati vs. Marathi. Recently, there was a controversy when workers of Shiv Sena (UBT) had an altercation with residents of a Gujarati-dominated housing society during the election campaign. Last week, the war room of the BJP candidate was allegedly attacked by Shiv Sena (UBT) workers who suspected that money was being distributed from there.

In the last three elections, the BJP has fielded three different candidates from this seat. In 2014, Kirit Somaiya won from the seat and was replaced by Manoj Kotak in 2019. This time, Kotak has also been replaced by Mihir Kotecha. He is being challenged by Sanjay Patil of Shiv Sena (UBT). Patil won the 2009 election from this seat on the NCP ticket.

North Mumbai: This is considered a safe seat for the BJP, which has dominated here since 1989, except for two wins by Congress in 2004 and 2009. The BJP has replaced two-time MP Gopal Shetty with Piyush Goyal, a cabinet minister. Goyal's challenger is Bhushan Patil of the Congress, who emphasizes his local roots in contrast to Goyal's "outsider" status, though Goyal claims to be a true Mumbaikar.

Additional Seats to watch: Apart from these six seats, the Kalyan constituency, where CM Eknath Shinde’s son Shrikant is contesting, and the Thane seat, Shinde’s home base, are also drawing significant attention.