Double-digit price growth phase over, sustainable single-digit rise ahead, says Embassy Developments MD

The story of consolidation is going to continue, says Embassy Developments MD Aditya Virwani.

India’s residential real estate market is maturing with slower price rise, moderating sales and rapid consolidation in favour of large, credible developers, Embassy Developments managing director Aditya Virwani has said.

The shift is already visible and consolidation is going to continue, Virwani said in an exclusive interview to Moneycontrol. After two years of rapid escalation, he expects “price appreciation to taper”.

“We need to stop expecting double-digit growth rates. Prices have already started tapering and I see medium to high single-digit appreciation levels, which is far more sustainable,” he told Moneycontrol.

Sales slowing but demand still strong

Virwani acknowledged that sales have softened but said the broader housing cycle remains intact due to structural demand.

Millions are moving into cities and developers build only around six lakh homes a year. Therefore, there would always be a shortage and top developers would benefit from it, Virwani said.

“This is a long-term housing cycle — a 30-year cycle. There will be ups and downs but from a macro point of view, there is a huge shortage of housing.

“The top developers, the ones who execute on time and deliver a good product, will continue to keep eating up market share… and that trend will just continue, especially as the market slows down, which it is,” he said.

Homebuyers are gravitating towards branded developers for security, delivery certainty and financing comfort.

Unlike China, India won’t face speculative oversupply. “RERA has brought discipline. You launch only if you have momentum and real sales you cannot siphon money. So, we won’t be in a desperate oversupply situation,” he said.

Gurugram ‘too hot’

While NCR is India’s second-largest housing market, Embassy is being cautious on the residential segment.

“Affordability has gone out of whack in Gurugram… economics are not making sense. We don’t want gimmicky bookings that collapse later,” Virwani said.

He attributed the moderation to affordability pressures in certain micro-markets, particularly Gurugram, where “land costs and joint-development expectations have overheated beyond fundamentals”, he said.

Embassy is sharpening its focus on the Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR), where scale is unavoidable. “If you want to really go deep and do Rs 20,000 crore plus, you have to be in MMR,” he said.

Embassy Developments has inherited projects in Panvel, Savroli and Thane from Indiabulls, and is evaluating how to position a high-value two-acre parcel in Mumbai.

The company is planning an asset-light approach, selective partnerships and disciplined capital deployment.

Virwani said as appreciation and sales slow, the advantage for strong balance sheet developers will grow.

Building on Bengaluru story

Embassy Developments plans to strengthen its presence in Bengaluru by launching six residential projects valued at Rs 10,300 crore in North Bengaluru.

Among the upcoming launches are two premium RERA-approved residential projects, Embassy Greenshore and Embassy Verde Phase II.

Another launch planned for FY26 is in Hebbal. The company will also unveil an “invite-only” villa community and a premium villa project, together covering 116 acres, this year.

Together, these projects represent 5.6 million square feet of development potential in North Bengaluru, strengthening Embassy’s position in the city’s residential market.

“With RERA approval for two of our projects, we have entered an exciting phase of growth and are confident of achieving our pre-sales target of approximately Rs 5,000 crore for FY26,” he said.

Indiabulls Real Estate Limited merged its residential and commercial projects with certain subsidiaries of Embassy Group. Embassy Developments was the result of the merger which was completed in January.

The Embassy group has delivered over 21 msf residential project over the last 30 years in addition to 54 msf of commercial, 3.2 msf of industrial and warehousing among others.