In UP, all eyes on narrow victory margins on D-Day

System of Indian polls is such that it allows for post-election scrutiny: CEC Rajiv Kumar.

As the nation prepares for vote counting in the Lok Sabha elections on June 4, attention is focused on over 30 of the 80 Parliamentary seats in Uttar Pradesh, where victory margins are expected to be narrow, ranging between 1 percent and 10 percent.

“With the decrease in polling percentage in 2024 elections, the margin of victory in many seats will be crucial. In the 2014 and 2019 Lok Sabha elections, many candidates won by margins of 1.5 lakh to 2.5 lakh votes, but this is likely to be rare this time, with expected victory margins between 25,000-50,000 votes,” said senior journalist Manoj Bhadra.

Bhadra's point is underscored by the 2019 elections, where 32 seats had victory margins of less than 10 percent. In the Machchlishahr constituency, BJP candidate BP Saroj won by just 181 votes. Out of these 32 seats, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) won 23 seats, while its ally Apna Dal (S) won one. Other tight races included Meerut and Muzaffarnagar, where BJP candidates won by 4,729 and 6,526 votes, respectively.

The Samajwadi Party (SP) and Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), which were in alliance in 2019 elections, won two and four seats, respectively.

Data from the Election Commission's 2019 polls show that 10 constituencies had razor-thin victory margins of 2 percent or less. These include Machhlishahr, Meerut, Muzaffarnagar, Kannauj, Chandauli, Sultanpur, Ballia, Badaun, and Saharanpur. The BJP won eight of these, while the BSP claimed two.

Additionally, six more seats had winning margins between 2% and 5%, all won by the BJP. These close contests were in Baghpat, Firozabad, Basti, Sant Kabir Nagar, Kaushambi, and Bhadohi.

Kannauj was particularly notable for its narrow margin in both 2014 and 2019, switching from SP to BJP between these elections. In 2019, Subroto Pathak of the BJP defeated Dimple Yadav of the SP by a margin of just 12,353 votes.

Union minister Mahendra Nath Pandey narrowly won the Chandauli seat by 13,959 votes against SP's Sanjay Singh Chauhan and is now aiming for a third consecutive term. Similarly, the Sultanpur seat was fiercely contested, with the BJP’s Maneka Gandhi winning by 14,526 votes. Maneka is again in the fray from this constituency.

In Badaun, traditionally an SP stronghold, the BJP won by 18,454 votes, defeating SP's Dharmendra Yadav. This year, SP's Aditya Yadav is striving to reclaim it, and Dharmendra Yadav is contesting from Azamgarh.

“In 2019, the BJP won Firozabad by defeating SP’s Akshay Yadav by a margin of 28,783 votes. This time, the equation is different. Last time, Shivpal Yadav was a spoiler as he contested as an independent. This year, Shivpal is back with the SP, aiming to secure a win for his nephew,” said political analyst Rajendra Kumar.

Kaushambi and Basti also saw tight races in both election years, with the BJP emerging victorious against the SP in 2014 and 2019. In Basti, the BJP faced the SP in 2014 and the BSP in 2019.

The BSP won Shrawasti and Saharanpur by slim margins of 5,320 and 22,417 votes, respectively.

Additionally, 16 seats in UP were won by margins between 5 percent and 10 percent. The BJP secured nine of these, including Banda, Amethi, Faizabad, Etawah, Mohanlalganj, Kairana, Sitapur, Barabanki, and Misrikh.

Smriti Irani defeated Congress' Rahul Gandhi in Amethi by 55,120 votes, and the BJP's win in Faizabad, despite its Hindutva significance, was by only 65,477 votes. Apna Dal (S) won Robertsganj with a 54,336 vote margin.

The BSP and SP also had significant wins in this margin category, including Amroha, Bijnor, Jaunpur, Ambedkar Nagar (BSP), and Moradabad and Mainpuri (SP).

“The BJP may benefit from its alliance with the Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD), unlike in 2019 when RLD was with the SP-BSP alliance. Alliances with Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party (SBSP), and NISHAD party is likely to benefit BJP. But, will it increase the winning margin, only the time will tell,” said Kumar.