J&K elections: Exit polls give clear edge to NC-Congress, here are the five big takeaways

Jammu and Kashmir's political arena

Major exit polls have given an edge to National Congress-Congress combine in the recently concluded three-phased polling in Jammu and Kashmir. The polls in the Union Territory, was one of the most anticipated and hard-fought electoral exercise in the regions recent history.

The voter turnout in 2024, although marginally lower than the 65.7% registered in the 2014 assembly polls (excluding Ladakh), threw up up interesting trends as militancy-inflicted areas witnessed voting in record numbers. Additionally, over 40 per cent of the candidates in the poll fray, contested as independents-- a number that is 'reported' to be one of the highest in the regions electoral history.

Significant entry of independents had also sparked claims that they are backed by the Centre to split votes of the traditional parties -- PDP and NC. The conjecture, gained ground when Engineer Rashid publicly claimed that he has no qualms of siding with any outfit that meets his core demands.

Engineer Rashid, who was lodged in Delhi's Tihar Jail under the Unlawful Activities (Prevention) Act in connection with a 2017 terror funding case, was recently released on interim bail.

However, as all eyes are fixed on October 8, here are some of the interesting takeaways from today's exit polls.

1. Reading down of Article 370 and diminishing returns for BJP in J&k

The saffron party's election plank in the region revolved around the abrogation of Article 370 and the “development” since August 5, 2019. Furthermore, the quota for SC/ST communities in Assembly seats and the grant of ST status to the Pahadi community was believed to improve its 2014 tally of 25. However, major polls have predicted a figure between 25-28 for the party, a number that is far below its own estimates. Senior party sources publicly expressed that the party was well-placed to emerge as the single largest party and win at least 35 seats in Jammu. Post delimitation, Jammu now has 43 assembly seats whereas Kashmir has 47 assembly seats.

2. Ballot over Bullet- When BJP fell short of the finish line
The high voter turnout in the Kashmir valley reflected people's commitment to the democratic process, especially when people were bereft of day-to-day public engagement with the elected representatives since 2019. Issues like unemployment, growing substance abuse and a marked disenchantment with lack a of elected representatives marked the three-phased election.

3. NC-Congress in drivers seat?
National Conference-Congress performance in the valley seem to have catapulted the grouping to the driver's seat. All exit polls have given the alliance an edge, with a few going as far as predicting a clear mandate for the them.NC leader Omar Abdullah on Saturday dismissed the exit poll results for the Jammu and Kashmir Assembly elections and said only the numbers coming out at the end of counting on October 8 will matter.

4. Good show eludes the BJP in Jammu

Post the delimitation exercise, the number of assembly seats in Jammu went up from 37 to 43, an aspect which the BJP had hoped to capitalize on given its strength in the region. The saffron party had contested all 43 seats in Jammu, whereas it put up only 19 candidates in the valley.

According to today's predictions, BJP is likely to win 27-31 seats, while Congress-NC may get 11-15 seats in Jammu. The PDP may win 0-2 seats in Jammu. The saffron party is likely to score 41 per cent votes, while the INDIA bloc is likely to get 36 per cent votes. The PDP's vote share is likely to drop to 5 per cent. In the Lok Sabha elections, the saffron party bagged 2 Lok Sabha seats but secured leads in 29 assembly segments.

5. PDP's slide into oblivion
One of the biggest takeaways from the exit polls is the significant decline of the PDP, one of the two traditional parties in the region. Experts are of the view that voters in Kashmir have neither forgotten the PDP’s partnership with the BJP nor its attempt to defend the indefensible during the civilian agitation in 2016. Most of the predictions have given a figure of 7-11 seats, a marked dropdown from its performance in 2014, when it won 28 seats.

Founded by Mufti Mohammad Sayeed in 1999, the PDP won 16 seats in the 2002 Assembly elections, improved its tally to 21 in the 2008 elections, and 28 in the 2014 elections. Twice, the party was able to stitch partnerships to form coalition governments – with the Congress from 2002 to 2008, and with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) from March 2015 to June 2018.