Bihar Election 2025: Opinion poll gives NDA clear edge over Mahagathbandhan, Tejashwi Yadav top choice as CM

A resounding 48.9 percent of the respondents said they would vote for the ruling NDA in Bihar elections. (File Photo: PTI)

The National Democratic Alliance of the Bharatiya Janata Party, Janata Dal (United) and other smaller parties is on track to gain a majority in the Bihar Assembly elections scheduled to be held in October-November this year, the findings of an opinion poll released by InkInsight have revealed.

As per the survey, a resounding 48.9 percent of the respondents said they would vote for the ruling NDA in Bihar while 35.8 percent of them said they would vote for the Mahagathbandhan of the Rashtriya Janata Dal, Congress and Left parties.

The findings of the second edition of the InkInsight survey are largely in line with what it found in May, giving the NDA and edge over the Mahagathbandhan in polls.

A breakdown of the survey data shows that NDA maintains its popularity among all gender groups. While 43.6 percent male respondents said they would prefer to see the NDA return to power, 54.7 percent women said they would vote for the BJP-JD(U) alliance.

In comparison, 39.8 percent of the male respondents preferred the Mahagathbandhan over the NDA while only 31.2 percent of the women said they would vote for the Grand Alliance in Bihar.

The survey also showed NDA's popularity among five different age categorisations, with those aged 60 years and above (53%) emerging as a solid support base for the NDA. This was followed by those in the 40-49 years age group (51.9%), 50-59 years (48.8%), 18-29 years (47.3%) and 30-39 years (46.8%).

In comparison, the Mahagthbandhan's figures stood at 39.2 percent (over 60 years), 38.2 percent (50-59 years), 30-39 years (38 percent), 18-29 years (34.8 percent) and 40-49 years (30.5 percent).

While the NDA appears to be enjoying a clear lead in perception when it comes to gaining majority, the same cannot be said of the return of Nitish Kumar as the Chief Minister.

According to the survey, a majority of the respondents (38.3%) said they favoured RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav as the top choice as Bihar CM as compared to 35.6 percent who still preferred Nitish. As many as 4.6 percent of the respondents said they would like to see Chirag Paswan of the Lok Janshakti Party (Ramvilas) as the Chief Minister, only 2.3 percent said the same for Jan Suraj Party founder Prashant Kishor.

Crucially, only 1.7 percent of the respondents favoured incumbent Deputy CM and BJP leader Samrat Choudhary as a potential CM while 12.3 percent said they would like to see a fresh face from the BJP as Chief Minister.

Unemployment (51.2%) emerged as the biggest issue for voters followed by price rise (45.7%), corruption (41%), basic infrastructure such as power, roads and water (36.9%) and law and order (19.5%), among others, the survey findings have revealed.

A caste-wise breakup of the survey data further showed the Mahagthbandhan enjoying the support of Yadavs (56,9%), Scheduled Tribes (53.2%) and Muslims (68.1%) while all other caste groups appear to be favouring the NDA for now.

While 85.1 percent of Kurmis, the caste group CM Nitish Kumar belongs to, are with the NDA, 79.4 percent of the Hindu upper caste also favour the ruling alliance. As many as 66.2 percent of the Koeri/Kushwaha respondents also favour the NDA, followed by Dusadh/Pasi at 59.2 percent, non-Yadav OBCs and Extremely Backward Classes (57.3%) and Other SC groups (52.6%).

Interestingly, as many as 32.5 percent of the respondents from the Yadav community have said they would prefer to vote for the NDA over the Mahagathbandhan, the survey found.

Elections across the 243 Assembly constituencies in Bihar are due to be held in November-December this year.