BREXIT BLOG: EU leaders will keep unity, says Donald Tusk

Moneycontrol Bureau3.30 pm Indian equity markets have come to a close, falling 604 points, recovering more than 400 points from a 1,000-point plus intra-day plunge.The Nifty, which breached 8,000, closed near 8,100.3:25 pm European Union leaders are determined to keep the unity of the EU after Britain voted to leave the 28-nation bloc, the chairman of the leaders Donald Tusk said.

3:15 pm Escorts opened down but trading up. UniTech, Jain Irrigation up from day's low.  2:55 pm Indian economy has strong fundamentals. India will have to negotiate separately with the EU and the UK: Jaitley2:53 pm: Finance Minister Arun Jaitley says he expects markets to settle down over the next few days.2:50 pm Market recovers further from days lows — Nifty up 130 points; Sensex up over 400 points.2:30 pm The UK's decision to leave the European Union will lead to a prolonged period of uncertainty that will weigh on the country's economic and financial performance and will be credit negative for the UK sovereign and other rated entities, Moody's Investors Service said in a report published today.It believes heightened uncertainty during negotiations over new arrangements between the UK and the EU will likely dent investment inflows and consumer and business confidence in the UK, weighing on its growth prospects.2:15 pm Recovery strengthens further, Sensex now 450 points off lows.2:04 pm Market recovers from intra-day lows. Sensex up 400 points from day's low.2:02 pm New PM will have to initiate negotiation with the EU. Nothing Will change significantly any time soon and there's no reason to revalue British economy anytime soon. We will see the full effect of Brexit By 2020: Desai

2:00 pm UK Labor politician Lord Meghnad Desai says David Cameron's party was highly divided. Everyone thought that 'Remain' Will come through with a small margin and Cameron has taken it on the chin and resigned.

1:40 pm Sensex recovers 300 points from day's low; FTSE off 230 points from day's low; Nifty Bank recovers 300 points from day's low.1:31 pm: Commerce Minister says currency volatility may have some impact on exports in the short term.1:30 pm Our fundamentals are strong, and thus we will be able to face the impact of Brexit. We will have to watch for currency volatility. Strength of Indian economy is attracting investments and will continue. Now, Brexit impact on pound will be matter of interest, says Commerce Minister Nirmala Sitharaman. 1:25 pm Sensex recovers 280 points from day's low. Nifty recovers almost 90 points.1:20 pm Mark Joseph Carney, Governor of the Bank of England, said the bank will consult with international authorities to see if the UK can absorb the shock and adjust to new life. 1:15 pm The patient has an advanced stage of cancer. Central banks can only administer a drug to make the last stages easier, says Viktor Shvets of Macquarie. 12:57 pm Now that decision has been made to leave the EU, I will do my best to help in the transition: Cameron.12:55 pm David Cameron to resign as UK Prime Minister.12:53 pm Delivering stability is key and will continue as PM for the next three months: Cameron.12:51 pm British PM speaks to the media, says will do anything to do steer the ship for smoother transition. 12:50 pm  The RBI Governor has cautioned against overanalysing Brexit. He says: "If you want to be gloomy, you can add a whole string not bad events, ranging from what you call the fissiparous tendencies in Europe, a potential for recession in UK, shutting down of trade or more constraints on trade, resulting in more pain for export oriented nations like Taiwan, South Korea and China, and consequently a significant downturn in world economy. My sense is that the sequence of events may not play out. Some discussions, negotiations, political action may not lead to one leading to another like a set of dominoes. I am hopeful, it is early days; we should not overfocus."12:45 pm: British Prime Minister David Cameron expected to hold a press conference soon. Is a resignation on cards?1245 pm Britain won't invoke Article 50 and market panic will wither away in a day or two, says Manish Singh of Crossbridge Capital.1240 pm  Analysts say markets will see furious amount of selling on account of Brexit. They expect markets to slide further.1235 pm  Reactions coming in from SBI Chairman Arundhati Bhattacharya: “Uncertainty of any sort results in volatility and Brexit will be no exception. As risk aversion sets in, there would be a decline in Financial Markets and India would see this impact along with other nations. However as trade strategies are reworked there could be potential advantages in the form of better market access for India to EU & UK.”

12:30 pm: Currencies across the globe will go through an adjustment as a result of Brexit, and some adjustment is warranted, feels RBI Governor Rajan. Already because of the steep devaluation in the pound, the Japanese yen has strengthened and that must be worrying the Japanese authorities, he says.Rajan says what he is more worried by is intervention in a big way by central bankers to move their currency in a particular direction (depreciating) so as to gain a competitive advantage. That is a temptation central bankers must try and resist, says Rajan11: 45 am Since Brexit reflects a public mood, policy makers must pay attention to it, RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan tells CNBC-TV18. He says if reflects a vote by people who are tired of globalisation, immigrants. In general, this is not good news for economic growth. It is not an immediate liquidity shock that goes through the system, but it is more of a slow burning change reflected in this referendum. That change will affect economies deeply as the change goes through. Rajan says RBI prepared to act when necessary to ensure order in currency market. Rupee now down 1.1 percent at 67/98 to the dollar.11:30 am: Morgan Stanley says it sees protracted political and economic uncertainty as a key consequence. "For the US, the impacts grow over time with the economy falling to around stall speed even in the best outcome. Rate hikes comes off the table, the Fed provides liquidity," says the Morgan Stanley note.Sensex again down 1000 points. L&T, down 5 percent and Tata Motors, down 11 percent, at their lowest levels for the day.11:25 am: Bank of America Merrill Lynch says: Once the dust of the knee-jerk market reaction settles, we think that the UK's economy will clearly be the main victim, but also that the shock for the Euro area and the global economy is likely to be significant. Policy responses will be needed beyond the ‘first-aid’ remedy market disruption normally requires.Rating agency Standard & Poor's says UK may lose its 'AAA' rating.(Clarification: In the above para, an earlier update mentioned Deutsche Bank instead of Bank of America Merrill Lynch. The error is regretted.)11:15 am: For people with money to invest, today is the day to buy, says ICICI Prudential Asset Management's S Naren. There is panic on the street. We do not live in UK. Things are looking up for India; monsoon has been good, economy is showing signs of recovery. The next one week is a good time to buy, starting today. The stock market will price the Brexit problem over the next few days.10:55 am Mohamed A El-Erian says there will be dislocation in markets. The spillover of the UK vote on the rest of the world will depend on how long financial calm will take to restore itself. India is better placed than other countries to handle the crisis.10:34 am It's final: UK votes to leave EU. UK becomes first country to leave EU.10:30 am 9 more results left to declare10:15 am Leave camp needs 373,532 votes to win10.00 am Ramesh Damani, Member of BSE and NSE said globally markets will recover in time as Britain constitutes only 3 percent of the world's total economy.9.50 am The Sensex is down 746.34 points or 2.76 percent at 26255.88, and the Nifty down 234.05 points or 2.83 percent at 8036.40. About 130 shares have advanced, 1487 shares declined, and 41 shares are unchanged. 9.45 am The margin is tipping in favour of the leave camp. The leave camp leads with 15,061,847 votes against Remain's 14,040,003, says BBC.

9:30 am India's macroeconomic stability does not get threatened by the UK leaving EU, says Sanjeev Prasad. India is still a very domestically driven economy, he says, and that is something FIIs will keep in mind. Also, most domestic investors are positive on India. Once the dust settles, our fundamentals will start asserting themselves, Prasad says.9:22 am If you have the courage to hold on, buy some of the good names in today's panic, Sanjeev Prasad of Kotak Securities tells CNBC-TV18. He says the good names in auto and IT sectors should do well in the coming months.9:20 am Tata Motors hammered 10 percent as indices down 3 percent in early trade.Benchmark indices have opened around 3 percent lower. As expected Tata Motors shares have been hammered. The stock is down 10 percent because of its huge exposure to UK. Technical analyst Gujral says Nifty will struggle to hold above 8000. Short on every rally, he says. 9:13 am BBC projects 'leave' win in UK referendum. FTSE futures crashed 7.5 percent to 5813."The UK's EU referendum is proving close but the Remain campaign appears to be failing to pick up enough support outside London to win."9:12 am Rupee weakened past 68/USD, trading at lowest level since March 1. The currency declined 76 paise to 68.0125 a dollar.9:10 am Japan's Nikkei plunged more than 1,000 points. The index fell 6.17 percent to 15235.87.

9:08 am Jayant Sinha on Brexit: There will be adjustment in currencies across the globe, but India still remains a haven of stability in a troubled world, Jayant Sinha tells CNBC-TV18. We have made contingency plans he says. As long as the adjustment process is orderly, we will give the market leeway, he says.9:07 am RBI seen selling dollars via PSU banks at around 67.95 levels. The rupee slipped 67 paise to 67.92 a dollar.9:05 am 278 out of 382 areas vote 51.76 percent to leave and 48.24 percent to stay in European Union, which pushed FTSE futures lower by 7.8 percent at 5795.50.9:02 am Pre-opening session: The Sensex crashed 424 points to 26527 and the Nifty fell 218 points to 8052.9:00 am Rupee opens: The currency has opened sharply lower at 67.91 a dollar, down nearly 1 percent compared to previous closing value.8:59 am Technical view: Technical analyst Prakash Gaba says almost everything is a short sell today. He says recent support levels will now become resistance levels.VK Sharma of HDFC Securities says he is advising clients to sell Nifty on opening. "Just buy a put on the Nifty at whatever level it opens, don't wait for the final result of the Brexit poll," he says.8:56 am 270 out of 382 areas vote 51.54 percent to leave and 48.46 percent to stay in European Union. SGX Nifty fell more than 200 points.8:54 am Betfair says implied probability of leave vote in EU referendum at 94 percent. FTSE Futures fell 7.4 percent to 5820.8:52 am 265 out of 382 areas vote 51.63 percent to leave and 48.37 percent to stay in European Union. FTSE Futures plunged 7.45 percent to 5817.8:50 am SGX Nifty crashed 200 points, indicating massive fall in opening.8:47 am 260 out of 382 areas vote 51.46 percent to leave and 48.54 percent to stay in EU. FTSE Futures crashed 7.57 percent to 5810.

8:45 am Commodity check: Brent crude futures fell 4 percent & Nymex lost 5 percent.8:43 am Currency Update: Pound in free fall, down 9 percent against dollar now. Hits lowest level since September 1985.8:42 am Experts view: Once Nifty falls below 7950, it would create a buying opportunity, says technical analyst Ashwani Gujral. However, Brexit will cast a medium term shadow on the market, he says. Market will bottom out at some point, so one should buy between 7950 all the way to 7700. 8:40 am Arvind Sanger says :Equity markets are going to be a very tough place to be in over the next few months if Brexit happens, Arvind Sanger tells CNBC-TV18. He advises waiting for the market reaction to play our instead of jumping in to buy in today's weakness. Companies like Tata Motors with huge UK exposure will not be impacted immediately, says Sanger. But sentiment for the stock will be dampened for sure. Tata Motors will go down with the rest of the market, he says, adding Brexit will cast an overhang on the stock for a while. He advises investors to wait on the side for clarity to emerge rather than rushing to buy the stock in today's weakness8:35 am: 236 out of 382 areas vote 51.2 percent to leave & 48.8 percent to stay in EU8:30 am Rupee: In an interview to CNBC-TV18 Devesh Divya, Asia FX Strategist at Standard Chartered Bank shared his reading and outlook of Brexit or Bremain impact on the currency market. He expects markets to remain volatile at least till the time that we see clear pattern emerge. Divya further said Brexit will see a massive risk-off event for global markets, dollar/rupee will move sharply higher, which may see Central Bank's intervention but if its Bremain, we may see pullback on dollar/rupee.8:25 am: Gold up more than 3 percent

8:24 am: Brent & Nymex slip 4 percent

8:23 am: Dow Futures down 500 points

8:22 am: 205 out Of 382 areas vote 51.62 percent to leave and 48.38 percent to stay in EU

8:20 am Leave takes lead On the halfway mark with 51.61 percent, remain at 48.39 percent

8:15 am: 195 out Of 382 areas vote 51.30 percent to leave and 48.70 percent to stay in EU

8:12 am: UK Pound Slips 6.5% Against US Dollar: Pound-Dollar 1.3917

8:10 am: Nikkei down 500 points8:00 am: 171 out of 382 areas vote 51.3 percent to leave & 48.7 percent to stay in EU7:55 am: Pound slips almost 6 percent against dollar7:45 am: 161 out of 382 areas vote 51.5 percent to leave & 48.5 percent to stay in EU

7:38 am: 106 out of 382 areas vote 50 percent to leave & 50 percent to stay in EU7:33 am 100 out of 382 areas vote 49.5 percent to leave and 50.5 percent to stay in EU.7:30 am Market volatile over Brexit voting result. Nikkei down more than 100 points.7:29 am: 90 out of 382 areas vote 49.6 percent to leave & 50.5 percent to stay in EU.7:20 am: Pound recovers from session low, now trades at 1.4512/$: pound-dollar 1.4382 -0.0496.7:15 am  Market outlook: Michael Every of Rabobank said the UK referendum is on a knife-edge and it is very difficult to predict. "The bookmakers have the best odds, now," he said. Sterling started out at 150 against US dollar and now it is 145. There have been risk-on, risk-of trades, he said. 

"No one I know is taking any positions today. Liquidity is thin and volatility is high." 

He expects different markets to fall 3-4 percent if a Brexit happens. 

7:10 am Asia market: Asia markets opened higher , as the first set of results from the United Kingdom (UK) referendum on European Union membership trickled in.

Counting is underway today across the UK after millions of Britons cast their votes in the historic referendum that would decide whether the country will stay in or leave the European Union (EU).

The first few official results on Friday put the 'Brexit' campaign ahead, although opinion polls suggest that the vote will end a victory for the 'remain' campaign.

With results in from the first five of 382 voting districts, those in favour of ending Britain's 43-year membership had a small lead, but it was too early to discern a reliable trend.

Sterling slumped to USD1.4475, having earlier hit a high for the year at USD1.5022. The euro turned tail to hit USD1.1324 and the yen recouped early losses to stand at 104.96 per dollar.

Brisk voting marked polling day yesterday as the results remained too close to call till the very last minute.

Experts have predicted that a high turnout would benefit the Remain campaign, with earlyindications that voter turnout had been as high as 80 percent in many regions. The final announcement will bring to a close a fever-pitched and highly- strung campaign by both the 'Brexit' and Remain sides.

There has been much speculation about how the final outcome would impact David Cameron's own political future as Prime Minister.