Will BJP fare well in Delhi election?

R Jagannathan
Firstpost.com

We won't know till 8 December which party has the wind on its back, and which one faces headwinds in the run-up to 2014. But by the end of the day, as various pollsters and TV channels announce the results of their exit polls or post-poll surveys, we may get a fair idea about what’s in store. Here's what the polls will tell us today, based on various combinations of results.

Broadly the BJP is expected to do well in the four major assemblies- the fifth one being Mizoram. It is expected to win comfortably in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh, and may squeak through in Chhattisgarh and Delhi too if it is lucky.

Thus, if it scores a 4-0 sweep in the heartland states and Delhi, the BJP will build momentum and Narendra Modi will be heading towards 2014 with greater confidence. A 2-2 score does not rob the BJP of its chances in the Lok Sabha for the state elections were fought on local issues while the general elections will be fought on different issues – including Narendra Modi. Modi was only a marginal factor in Rajasthan, MP and Chhattisgarh, but Delhi is where the BJP will get its first reality check on his urban popularity.

Modi did a lot of campaigning in Delhi towards the end, and if the BJP gets a majority – however thin – it will be partly attributed to him, especially since he is believed to have backed Harsh Vardhan for the chief ministership over Vijay Goel.

So the most important result to watch out for is Delhi – for this city-state will not only send out a message on Modi but also on the fledgling Aam Aadmi Party (AAP). Delhi can have four possible outcomes – a win for BJP (possible), a win for Congress (less likely) or a win for AAP (even less likely) or a hung assembly. A hung assembly should actually be seen as a moral victory for Arvind Kejriwal, for he is the man who would have robbed BJP of near sure victory in the face of Sheila Dikshit’s handicap of double anti-incumbency.

A hung assembly is also the best possible outcome for Kejriwal for the simple reason that it means another election will have to be held in the next six months – and he will get six more months to campaign for a better total. From being a mere spoiler, he can now position himself as a challenger and contender for power.

If the BJP emerges as the largest party in a hung house, it would not be too bad, for the next election will be held along with the Lok Sabha one and here it could hope to do better by using the national mood for local gains. The biggest loser in a second election would be the Congress since voters will now think of AAP as a potential contender. The BJP will then get those Congress voters who are unconvinced about AAP, or those who prefer voting for a party that could be part of the next government at the Centre.

The only situation is which the Congress benefits will be if it actually wins or emerges as the largest party in Delhi. The Congress’ best case scenario would be if it can wrest Chhattisgarh and prevent a BJP romp in Delhi. In this case, it can deflate the BJP balloon for now and hope that the anti-incumbency mood will soften by April-May 2014 following a slight uptick in the economy, election-eve freebies, and some dangerous manoeuvring with polarising bills like the Communal Violence Bill. Some more muck-raking over Modi and Amit Shah should, of course, be par for the course.

To sum up: a 4-0 win is BJP’s dream scenario; 3-1 is good enough; and 2:2 will rob it of some sheen. A 3:1where Delhi is won but Chhattisgarh is lost to Congress is better for the BJP than a 3:1 where Chhattisgarh is won but Delhi is lost or hung. A 1:3 would be disastrous for the BJP – since it would mean loss of at least one sure state – either Rajasthan or Madhya Pradesh. The Congress will be cock-a-hoop with such a score and Modi will have to rebuild his aura from scratch before 2014.

The writer is editor-in-chief, digital and publishing, Network18 Group