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Oct 26, 2011, 08.31 PM IST
The mood is euphoric as Indian market opens for a brief session of Mahurat trading. However, there are whispers that the ECB meeting announcement tonight might just spoil the Diwali mood. Despite the concerns in the global markets, some experts are hopeful on Indian market.
Ramesh Damani, Member BSE is optimistic and bullish on market. In CNBC-TV18's special show Mahurat Trading, Damani says that the worst has got the market the bit of value that is emerging for investors because stocks have been sold away and they are fairly cheap.
Here is an edited transcript of his comments.
Q: Is today a day of hope for you or are you feeling somber going into the next year?
A: Investors are always bullish by nature. Generally I think most of us are bullish not only over prospects of the companies we own but also over the future of this country. It is paradoxical. I mean the last year has been so bad in terms of the Sensex down 23-25% on a year-on-year basis, Diwali to Diwali but the paradox is that the worst has got the market the bit of value that is emerging for investors because stocks have been sold away and they are fairly cheap.
So it's hard to believe that if you buy at these levels a broad basket of stocks, you will not do well over a YoY period. So count me in the bullish and optimistic camp.
Q: Ironic timing as well for Diwali, everything is stacked up in this week. We had the Reserve Bank, we have got so much coming in from the global cues. Are you sensing there is a bit of grid unlocking in terms of where things go, going into next year?
A: The one thing that really surprises me among all this great unlocking that you are talking about is that you look at the price movement of the Dow which sets the pace even today for all the markets, whether its in Europe or emerging markets. The Dow is refusing to go down below a particular level. If you recall in the 2007-2008 bear market the Dow hit about 6800-7000 level. It hasnít come close to that point yet. It seems to just viscously bounce back after a period of time. There is great amount of leadership in that market whether its with Google or Facebook or MasterCard so, the Dow seems like its finished its bear market correction.
Its now holding its values and its probably going to go into the higher end of the range. If you study the price of the Dow movements everything being known to the market, its an amazing conclusion to come to but I would suggest that its headed back to its old highs rather than the lows.
Q: Do you think we have put in our bottom at 4700 Nifty or around 15000 Sensex or you can't be sure yet?
A: You can never be sure on the market but I would be very disappointed if the market broke 4700. I would say that it will go up 500 points before it goes back to 4700. Itís hard for me to imagine the level of apathy that I have seen in this market. It has been probably the most extreme I have seen over the last 25 years in the market.
It's like no one wants to own stocks in India. You get an open offer to the public, whatever standard in next day the residual stock is down 70-80% in value from that price, you go through the shareholders list, almost no one is buying new quantities of share. The level of apathy suggests that the market is not heavy beast thatís going to go down, itís fairly light. I think buyers would be rewarded over periods of time.
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