Analysts see Rajan not easing rates despite better CPI data

Even after a positive surprise on the retail inflation front, analysts today said they expect Reserve Bank Governor Raghuram Rajan to hold the key rates in the forthcoming policy announcement on April 1.

"We expect RBI to maintain interest rates status quo in the policy announcement next month to ensure that the decline in inflation continues before the monetary policy looks to promote growth," ratings agency Care said in a note.

Also Read: Jan IIP at 0.1%, Feb CPI inflation falls to 8.10%

Foreign brokerage HSBC said emergence of pleasing data and the likelihood of RBI holding its key rate on April 1, should not lead to believing that the rate tightening cycle is over.

Official data released yesterday showed the consumer price inflation cooled down to 8.1 percent for February as against the 8.79 percent in January, while the index of industrial production came to a positive side in January, at 0.1 percent after three months of continous decline.

Under Rajan, the Reserve Bank has raised rates three times or 75 bps to 8 per cent with an eye on the inflation number, the last one in January.

The central bank has also made its intentions of focussing more on the CPI number very clear. It has also set itself a target of bringing down the CPI to 8 percent by January 2015 and get it down further to 6 percent by 2016.

"Retail inflation is now already close to the RBI's target of 8 percent for January 2015. Sustaining it at these levels however, will be crucial given the upward momentum in inflation of certain food categories," rating agency Crisil said in a note.

On the future trajectory of the monetary policy, brokerage Credit Suisse said it expects no major actions till the Septemeber quarter, where the RBI will do a 0.25 percent hike in the repo rate and follow it up with similar actions in the December and March quarters with theJanuary 2016 target of cooling CPI inflation down to 6 percent in mind.

Its peer BNP Paribas also said even though there may have been some respite on the price rise front, the risks from inflation continue being elevated and the RBI will "retain a tightening bias for the foreseeable future."