Tamiur Baig of Deutsche Bank tells CNBC-TV18 that the dangerous combination of low growth and high inflation will not last past 2012.
Inflation for April came in at a shocking 7.2% , much higher than analysts’ expectations. Baig believes that supply side factors have started to weigh on inflation again, however, he is more worried if shocks materialise. “If you don’t have any shocks and yet we see food prices jump up, what would happen when actually shocks materialise,” he questioned.
Given what happened with inflation, Baig says that he doesn’t expect easing from the RBI in June. “I really cannot see what local factors can precipitate the RBI to make a move now given what has happened with inflation,” he elucidated.
While domestic factors aren’t encouraging enough for a rate cut, Baig says a big slowdown in global growth or a big decline in oil prices could lead to a response from the RBI. “Short of an extreme scenario like that, it is very hard for me to see under which circumstances RBI will be able to cut rates in June,” he said.
Below is an edited transcript of his interview with Udayan Mukherjee and Mitali Mukherjee. Also watch the accompanying video.
Q: What have you read into the inflation figures yesterday and do you think this is a start of a big snap back on inflation ticks that we may see?
A: It may not be return of a snap back, but it is certainly worrisome. It is not just the WPI inflation as you have seen but also the CPI that is showing high pick up in prices. We have also seen purchasing managers index (PMI) showing renewed pressure on their raw material costs as well as their upward costs. This is again demonstrating that even if demand is weak, the supply constraint nature of India is so severe that we can have low growth and high inflation for the next few quarters.
Q: What worries you more manufactured inflation, which ticked up a bit, or food inflation which is consistently higher and is showing alarming signs again?
A: We don’t have any poor indicators for monsoon, we don’t have any news about supply side disruption and despite that we have seen very big pick up in a host of food product prices. This is indeed worrisome, because if you don’t have any shocks and yet we see food prices jump up, what would happen when actually shocks materialise. What if rains end up this year being lower than the long-term average? So definitely inflation will remain a source of concern for years to come, not just in this particular cycle or this particular quarter.
We were hoping that we will see some respite this year because growth was going to be significantly below trend. I am afraid we are beginning to see that that is not going to happen. There are two additional worrying factors for inflation. One is this incomplete pass through of fuel price. If we see diesel and kerosene forced up later this month or next month, that is another source of inflation. The 20% year on year decline on the rupee will push up the rupee costs of imported materials.
Q: There will be some more data points before the RBI speaks in June. Do you think it will be able to move again or given what it is seeing on inflation it is very unlikely that they will move on rates in the June meeting at least?
A: It is very unlikely; I really cannot see what local factors can precipitate the RBI to make a move now given what has happened with inflation. It has to be something external. A big slowdown in global growth or a big decline in oil prices because of some pick up in risk aversion that could lead to a global response from the interest rate side and RBI might be a part of that. But short of an extreme scenario like that, it is very hard for me to see under which circumstances RBI will be able to cut rates in June.
Q: So what looks like the more likely outcome that they do in terms of easing up liquidity that is keep attacking the CRR but hold on rates?
A: Open market operations (OMOs), CRR whatever is necessary to ensure that transactions in the economy are taking place in an orderly manner, that there is no credit crunch.
I don’t think the RBI is particularly worried about credit growth per se, I think that is a function of how much demand there is in the economy. Real interest rates are not particularly high, they are zero or slightly positive in India, so what really matters is liquidity. For example, whether the government spending is being matched by the system’s demand for liquidity. If there is some imbalance there, then surely RBI has the tools and ability to inject additional liquidity.
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