Trump’s Iran strike rattles Beijing as China weighs US resolve on Taiwan

Trump’s Iran strike rattles Beijing as China weighs US resolve on Taiwan

US President Donald Trump’s sudden shift from restraint to force — launching airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities over the weekend — is fuelling uncertainty in Beijing about how he might handle a potential conflict over Taiwan. Long considered unpredictable, Trump’s latest move has challenged assumptions among Chinese officials who had hoped his foreign policy instincts leaned more toward deal-making than confrontation, the New York Times reported.

Chinese leaders have spent months trying to gauge Trump’s approach to Taiwan, especially as the US continues to arm the island and bolster its defences. But Trump’s decision to bomb three Iranian nuclear sites, despite previously denouncing American involvement in “endless wars,” has upended Beijing’s playbook. Many now worry that Trump could act just as forcefully — or erratically — in Asia.

A new signal on the use of force

The Iran strikes, which reportedly caused major damage to underground enrichment facilities, revealed a side of Trump many in Beijing had downplayed: a willingness to deploy overwhelming force with little warning. The move came after weeks of diplomatic manoeuvring, reinforcing the idea that Trump’s foreign policy is both transactional and reactive.

“It implies that when President Trump deems it necessary, he will choose armed force to advance American foreign policy,” said Xin Qiang, director of the Centre for Taiwan Studies at Fudan University.

For China, the lesson is sobering. Analysts now believe Trump’s red lines on Taiwan may be firmer than expected, or at least more volatile — making military miscalculations more likely.

Testing Trump’s limits on Taiwan

Chinese experts have recently been pressing American counterparts with probing questions about Trump’s boundaries. In their view, Trump is a “wild card,” capable of rapid escalation and sudden deals. His past behaviour — mixing praise for Xi Jinping with hardline rhetoric and tariffs — only deepens the ambiguity.

Beijing has intensified its own pressure on Taiwan, ramping up air and naval activity around the island. But Trump’s Iran move suggests that he might not tolerate similar provocations in the Taiwan Strait.

“The Chinese experts I’ve met with have been asking pointed questions about what Trump would do if Beijing took action against Taiwan,” said Zack Cooper of the American Enterprise Institute.

Worries of a backroom deal

Still, Taiwan and some in Washington remain concerned that Trump’s unpredictability could cut both ways. They fear he might strike a deal with China that weakens US support for the island — especially if he sees gains elsewhere, such as in trade or diplomacy. During his first term, Trump once compared Taiwan to the tip of a Sharpie, and China to the massive Resolute Desk — a metaphor suggesting Taiwan’s vulnerability.

That uncertainty is now colliding with an emboldened Chinese military. Unlike Iran, China possesses a formidable arsenal, including thousands of missiles and a growing navy, making a potential Taiwan conflict vastly more dangerous.

As Bonnie Glaser of the German Marshall Fund notes, “It’s the president himself that introduces the uncertainty and unpredictability.” And after the strikes on Iran, that unpredictability just became even harder for Beijing to ignore.