Trade, crude, Hajj and Middle East: What’s likely on the table as PM Modi heads to Saudi Arabia

Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman exchange the Strategic Partnership Council Agreement, in Riyadh in October 2019.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi will arrive in Jeddah on a two-day bilateral visit to Saudi Arabia, marking the first by an Indian PM to Saudi Arabia’s commercial hub in over four decades. The high-profile visit arrives at a critical juncture, both for bilateral relations and the broader geopolitical landscape. It also underscores the remarkable transformation of India-Saudi relations from modest beginnings to a comprehensive strategic partnership spanning economic, defense, and cultural dimensions.

What to expect from the visit

This visit is expected to encompass a broad agenda, including energy cooperation, defence collaboration, trade and investment discussions, and cultural exchanges, besides expediting Riyadh’s USD 100-billion investment plan for India.

Prime Minister Modi will meet with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to strengthen bilateral relations and discuss key regional and global issues, particularly the Middle East situation. Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri announced on Saturday that several Memoranda of Understanding (MoUs), including one on green hydrogen, are expected to be signed following the talks.

• Strategic Partnership Council (SPC) Meeting: A central component of the visit is likely to be the convening of the India-Saudi Arabia Strategic Partnership Council (SPC), established in 2019. The SPC operates through two main tracks: one focusing on political, security, social, and cultural cooperation, and the other on economy and investments. This meeting aims to review progress in these areas and set new objectives for bilateral collaboration. ​

• Energy Cooperation: Energy security remains a cornerstone of India-Saudi relations, and this issue has gained even more urgency in 2025 due to global disruptions. Saudi Arabia is India’s third-largest supplier of crude oil, accounting for 14.3% of India’s imports in FY24. The two countries are expected to discuss long-term crude oil agreements and downstream collaborations during PM Modi’s visit.

• Defence and Security Collaboration: Defense cooperation between India and Saudi Arabia has intensified in recent years, aligning with Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030 and India's Make in India initiative. Joint military exercises, such as the inaugural Army exercise "Sada Tanseeq" held in Rajasthan in January 2024, and naval exercises like "Al Mohed Al Hindi," underscore this growing partnership. Additionally, Saudi Arabia has procured defense equipment from India, including the 155mm Advanced Towed Artillery Gun System (ATAGS).

• Trade and Investment: Bilateral trade between India and Saudi Arabia reached $42.98 billion in 2023-24, with Indian exports at $11.56 billion and imports at $31.42 billion. The trade portfolio includes engineering goods, petroleum products, chemicals, and food items. Investment ties are also strengthening, with Indian investments in Saudi Arabia approximating $3 billion and Saudi investments in India around $10 billion, spanning sectors like construction, IT, and financial services.

• Infrastructure and Connectivity: The India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC), announced during the G20 summit in New Delhi, is a significant initiative involving India, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Jordan, Israel, and the EU. This corridor aims to enhance trade and connectivity between these regions. PM Modi's visit is expected to further discussions on this project, focusing on its implementation and potential economic benefits.

• Hajj pilgrimage: The issue Saudi Arabia suspending issuance of Umrah, business, and family visit visas for 14 countries, including India, may find a mention during the talks. India’s inclusion in the list is linked to Saudi’s efforts to curb unauthorised participation in Hajj.

US tariffs and economic nationalism: The Trump administration’s recent tariffs have led to economic uncertainty and volatility in global supply chains. For oil markets, such protectionist measures tend to increase input costs and contribute to inflation, indirectly pushing up energy prices worldwide.

Russia-Ukraine war and its aftershocks: Now in its fourth year, the Russia-Ukraine war continues to disrupt global energy markets. Western sanctions on Russian oil, combined with supply-chain bottlenecks in Eastern Europe, have kept crude prices elevated and unpredictable. Brent crude remains in the $85–$90 range as of April 2025, a significant burden for energy-importing countries like India.

PM Modi's upcoming visit to Saudi Arabia is poised to reinforce the multifaceted partnership between the two nations. By addressing key areas such as energy security, defense collaboration, trade, and cultural ties, the visit aims to lay the groundwork for a more integrated and strategic alliance, contributing to regional stability and economic growth.