Nobel Peace Prize 2025: How it’s decided, why Trump’s chances are slim and who could win

Trump’s slim Nobel Peace chances

As the world waits for the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize announcement on October 10, attention has turned once again to US President Donald Trump, who insists his diplomacy record makes him a deserving laureate. Yet experts say that while Trump’s claims have amplified interest, his chances of taking home the coveted prize remain slim.

How the Nobel Peace Prize is decided

The Nobel Peace Prize, one of six established by Swedish industrialist Alfred Nobel in his 1895 will, is awarded annually by the Norwegian Nobel Committee ,  a five-member body appointed by Norway’s parliament. The committee reflects the political balance of the Norwegian legislature.

Nobel’s will stipulates that the peace prize should go to “the person who has done the most or best work for fraternity between nations, for the abolition or reduction of standing armies and for the holding and promotion of peace congresses.” Over time, this has evolved to include contributions to human rights, disarmament, democracy, and environmental protection.

The nomination process begins each year with a January 31 deadline. Eligible nominators include lawmakers, government officials, university professors, past laureates, and advisers to the Nobel Institute. Anyone fitting these criteria can propose a candidate , no invitation is required.

After nominations close, the committee’s first February meeting allows members to add a few additional names. The shortlisted candidates are then reviewed by advisers and external experts, and deliberations continue through the summer. A final vote is held in early October, and the full list of nominees remains sealed for 50 years.

Trump’s nomination and his claim

Donald Trump has received formal nominations from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet, and Pakistan’s army chief Asim Munir, citing his claimed role in mediating conflicts and brokering the recent Gaza ceasefire. Leaders from Armenia, Azerbaijan, Rwanda, and Gabon have also voiced support.

“I’ve stopped eight wars, so that’s never happened before,” Trump said at the White House. “I didn’t do it for the prize, I did it because I saved a lot of lives.”

Trump has argued that his leadership produced truces in multiple regions, including the Middle East and Eastern Europe. However, many of these claims remain disputed or unverifiable, and experts note that the timing of the nominations could make them invalid for the 2025 prize.

Reports suggest that letters of support from foreign leaders were submitted after the January 31 deadline, meaning they would count only toward the 2026 award cycle.

Why Trump is unlikely to win

Even if his nomination is valid, Trump’s prospects appear weak. The Nobel Committee tends to reward sustained and verifiable contributions to peace, rather than short-term or politically motivated initiatives.

While the ceasefire in Gaza has been welcomed as a breakthrough, observers caution that its long-term success remains uncertain. “The committee values outcomes that endure beyond political cycles,” said one Oslo-based analyst. “It’s too early to tell if this truce will hold.”

Trump’s “America First” policies, withdrawal from international agreements such as the Paris Climate Accord, and his frequent clashes with multilateral institutions also run counter to the Committee’s emphasis on global cooperation.

Moreover, Trump’s public campaigning for the prize, calling a potential snub “a big insult” to the United States — may work against him. The Nobel Committee historically favours understated diplomacy and long-term humanitarian impact over self-promotion.

The frontrunners for 2025

While Trump’s candidacy has drawn media attention, analysts point to other figures and organisations as more likely winners. Among the names circulating in Oslo are Yulia Navalnaya, widow of Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny; humanitarian groups such as Doctors Without Borders and Reporters Without Borders; and United Nations agencies like UNRWA and UNHCR.

Also in contention are Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms, which have coordinated aid during the country’s brutal civil conflict, and climate activist Greta Thunberg, recognised for her global mobilisation on environmental justice.

Some experts also highlight Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy or institutions like the International Criminal Court and NATO, which have been seen as defenders of international law and security.

A prize that transcends politics

The Nobel Committee’s mission is to honour enduring contributions to peace and humanity, not political campaigning. While Donald Trump’s nominations underscore his global influence, experts argue that his divisive diplomacy and domestic controversies make him an unlikely pick.

Still, the US president’s inclusion ensures that Friday’s announcement in Oslo will be closely watched — not only for who wins, but for what the decision reveals about how the Nobel Committee defines peace in a deeply polarised world.