Is Catholicism shrinking across the globe? Here's what data tells us

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Pope Francis’ demise at the age of 88 marks the end of a transformative era for the Catholic Church. As the first Jesuit and Latin American pope, Francis was known for his progressive views on issues such as interfaith dialogue, economic inequality and climate change. His passing also brings renewed attention to the challenges facing Catholicism globally, particularly the decline in adherence and participation across various regions.

Global trends in Catholicism

According to a 2013 Pew Research Center report, the global Catholic population was estimated at 1.2 billion, making up about 16% of the world's population. However, this figure masks regional disparities and trends. While some areas, like sub-Saharan Africa, have seen growth in Catholic numbers, others, notably in Europe and the Americas, have experienced declines.

United States: Declining Participation Amidst Demographic Shifts

In the United States, the Catholic Church has faced significant challenges over the past few decades. Once a significant religious force in the country, Catholicism has witnessed a persistent decline.

The percentage of US adults describing themselves as Catholics stands at 20 per cent. This percentage has been generally stable since 2014. But it is slightly lower than in 2007, when 24% of U.S. adults identified as Catholic, according to Pew Research Center.

Another recent survey by the organisation also found that the share of Americans who identify as Christians shows signs of levelling off – at least temporarily – at slightly above six-in-ten.

Weekly Mass attendance among U.S. Catholics has dropped from 55% in 1970 to about 20% in recent years. The number of priests has also declined, from 59,000 in 1970 to 35,000 today. Despite these challenges, the U.S. Catholic population has been somewhat sustained by immigration, particularly from Latin America. As of 2010, 30% of U.S. Catholics were born outside the country, with 76% of these immigrants hailing from Latin America and the Caribbean.

A significant portion of those leaving Catholicism are joining the ranks of the religiously unaffiliated, often referred to as the "nones." This group has seen substantial growth, indicating a broader trend of secularization rather than a shift to other religious denominations.

Europe: Erosion of a Catholic Stronghold

Europe, historically the heartland of Catholicism, is experiencing a profound secularization and a marked decrease in Catholic adherence across many nations.

Pew Research Center surveys across Europe have consistently shown a decline in both Catholic identification and practice. For instance, a 2018 study across Western Europe revealed that while a majority still identified as Christian (including Catholic), the number of those actively practicing their faith was significantly lower (Pew Research Center, "Being Christian in Western Europe," 2018).

·       In Italy, while 78% identify as Catholic, only 19% attend services weekly, and 31% never attend. ​

·       Germany reported that fewer than half of its citizens belonged to the two major Christian churches for the first time in 2021. ​

·       Poland, traditionally a Catholic nation, saw a decline from 87.6% identifying as Catholic in 2011 to 71.3% in 2021. ​

India – A Complex Picture

The Catholic Church in India is diverse, comprising the Latin Church, the Syro-Malabar Church, and the Syro-Malankara Church.

According to a 2021 Pew Research Center report, 2.4% of India’s massive population are Catholics. South India is home to about half of the Christians in the country, and Christians make up a relatively large share of people in India’s more sparsely populated Northeast, where the vast majority of Christians belong to tribal communities.

Due to India's massive population growth, the absolute number of Catholics in India has likely increased even if the percentage share has remained relatively constant.

Other Regions

Latin America: While historically a Catholic stronghold, Latin America has witnessed a significant growth in Protestant and other Christian denominations, as well as a rise in the religiously unaffiliated. Pew Research Center data has documented this shift in several Latin American countries.

Africa: In contrast to the decline in many other parts of the world, Catholicism is experiencing significant growth in Africa. This demographic shift is altering the global center of gravity of the Catholic Church, with African voices and perspectives becoming increasingly influential.

Pope Francis's Views on Declining Catholicism

Pope Francis's papacy was marked by efforts to address the decline in Catholic adherence. He emphasized a more inclusive Church, reaching out to marginalized communities and advocating for social justice. His focus on issues like climate change, economic inequality, and interfaith dialogue aimed to make the Church more relevant in the modern world.​

However, his progressive stances also faced criticism from traditionalists within the Church. Some argued that his approach diluted core doctrines, while others believed it was necessary for the Church's survival in a rapidly changing world.

The global landscape of Catholicism is undergoing a significant transformation. While the Church continues to grow in regions like Africa, many historically Catholic areas in the West are experiencing a notable decline in both identification and practice. This trend, evident in data from the United States and across Europe, presents profound challenges for the Catholic Church in the 21st century.