How Xi, Putin and Kim are drawing closer — and why it stops short of an alliance

Russian President Vladimir Putin, Chinese President Xi Jinping and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un during the military parade marking the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II, in Beijing. (Courtesy: Reuters photo)

China’s President Xi Jinping stood shoulder to shoulder with Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un at a military parade in Beijing last week, a striking visual of growing alignment among three nuclear powers. The pageantry, complete with intercontinental missiles rolling through Tiananmen Square, underscored Xi’s willingness to be seen with sanctioned states. Yet despite the optics, Beijing’s ties with Moscow and Pyongyang remain short of a binding alliance, the Wall Street Journal reported.

Symbolism and strategic timing

The series was meant to make a statement in an era when America is grappling with tattered alliances in Europe and Asia. Analysts aver Xi doesn't mind western criticism as much, and the idea of being able to present China as a unifying force among those disillusioned with American hegemony appeals to him. It followed a statement from Beijing that it would set up a new "global governance initiative" to usher in a less Washington-led order.

Similar interests but contrasting goals

Beijing, Moscow and Pyongyang all share animosity at America's influence and are all under sanction. China offers Russia industrial goods, with Russia exporting Russia's energy exports and battlefield lessons from Ukraine. North Korea's deployment of its troops there can also update its own forces. However, officials note that China's interests differ: Beijing stresses that it doesn't accept Russia's territorial claims in Ukraine and is worried about Kim's volatility.

Limits of cooperation

Despite imagery of warmth, Chinese specialists note that both Beijing and Moscow do not want to be dragged into one another's conflicts. Shanghai and Beijing commentators argue that if China and America fought over Taiwan, Russia would likely remain on the sidelines. China, too, is being wary of appearing too close to North Korea, as it has a long nuclear history of defying U.N resolutions. For now, Xi appears content to leverage the symbolism with a degree of strategic flexibility.

Risks and expenses to Beijing

Close ties with Moscow and Pyongyang come at a price. China's relations with Europe, a far larger trading partner, have grown chilly as Beijing props up the Russian economy. Domestic commentators also advise against partnering with volatile players when such moves could backfire, especially when China has its own economic tailwinds. Various Chinese strategists caution that Putin's Ukraine war and Kim's missile ventures could become burdens for Beijing rather than strengths.

Implications for international order

For Xi, standing up for Russia to the point of preventing a defeat in Ukraine is necessary, but victory for Russia is maybe not in Beijing's strategic long-term interest. A victorious Russia would most likely move to engage in rapprochement with the U.S., leaving China isolated. This dilemma mirrors the thin line that Xi must walk in executing his vision for "national rejuvenation" and a new world order. The display of solidarity last week was robust, but inherent contradictions in it ensure that China's partnerships with Russia and North Korea are as sensitive as they are strategic.