How Trump used leverage to push for Gaza deal, yet tough questions remain

Donald Trump

As the Gaza war enters its third year, U.S. President Donald Trump has achieved what no other world leader has managed—forcing Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to take the first step toward a broader peace deal, while also persuading key Middle Eastern countries to pressure Hamas.

Despite its potentially historic significance, the agreement Trump signed in Egypt on Thursday is seen as rushed and leaves several crucial issues unresolved—issues that analysts say could undermine the initial phase and slow progress toward the next, reported Reuters.

Trump’s plan, according to experts, represents the most promising attempt yet to end the war. But the immediate challenge lies in implementing what has been agreed on paper: stopping the fighting, exchanging Israeli hostages for Palestinian prisoners, and beginning a partial Israeli withdrawal from Gaza.

After that, negotiators must tackle the more divisive elements of Trump’s 20-point plan, such as Hamas’ disarmament—which the group rejects—a formal end to the conflict, and the question of who will govern Gaza after the war.

According to Reuters, none of these points were settled during three days of indirect talks in the Egyptian resort of Sharm el-Sheikh, where Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner and Middle East Envoy Steve Witkoff led U.S. mediation efforts. A quick breakthrough appears unlikely.

“There is an enormous number of potential sticking points that are going to really determine whether this ceasefire ends up being the beginning of peace or just another twist in the cycle of violence,” said Jonathan Panikoff, a former deputy U.S. national intelligence officer on the Middle East and now at the Atlantic Council in Washington.

He warned that keeping the ceasefire intact—something previous deals under Trump and former President Joe Biden failed to do—will require sustained attention and detailed follow-up from the White House. But with Trump’s foreign policy team weakened by staff cuts and a government shutdown, that will be difficult.

Still, Trump—who has promoted the deal as evidence of his worthiness for a Nobel Peace Prize—has, through determination, pushed the peace process further than many believed possible.

If completed successfully, the deal would mark a major foreign policy win for the Republican president, who ran on a promise to bring peace to global conflicts but has struggled to deliver in both Gaza and Ukraine.

Just weeks earlier, prospects for peace seemed bleak after Israel struck Hamas leaders in Qatar, a key U.S. ally. But Trump’s aides turned his anger at Netanyahu into leverage, pressing him to accept a framework for ending the war. The proposal was later presented to Muslim leaders during the U.N. General Assembly.

While Netanyahu defied Biden during Israel’s offensive following Hamas’ October 7, 2023 attack, he found it harder to resist Trump. The Israeli prime minister, aware of Trump’s popularity among Israelis, faced mounting pressure after the U.S. president had backed Israel in strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites in June and defended Netanyahu against global criticism.

“Without the leverage, there was no deal. Bibi cannot say no to Trump,” said Dennis Ross, a former Middle East adviser under both Republican and Democratic administrations.

Netanyahu now faces significant political risk at home. Members of his far-right coalition may quit his government in protest over the concessions he made, reported Reuters.

Trump also secured support from Qatar and Turkey to pressure Hamas into concessions—particularly to release Israeli hostages, both living and dead, early in the process instead of using them as bargaining chips later.

Qatar, which hosts the largest U.S. military base in the Middle East, has strengthened ties with Trump since he took office in January. During a White House visit in late September, Trump reportedly put Netanyahu on the phone with Qatar’s prime minister so the Israeli leader could apologize for Israel’s strike in Doha.

Trump has also deepened ties with Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan, who is seeking advanced U.S. weaponry, and asked him to help persuade Hamas to agree to the deal.

Known for his flair for ceremony, Trump plans to visit Israel this weekend, coinciding with the expected return of hostages. Netanyahu has invited him to address the Israeli parliament.

However, several details of the agreement remain unsettled, including the final list of Palestinian prisoners Israel will release in exchange for the 20 surviving hostages and approximately 28 dead.

Larger questions persist about Gaza’s future—whether Hamas will have any political role, which Trump and Netanyahu oppose, and how the devastated enclave will be rebuilt and financed.

Every U.S. president from Jimmy Carter to Joe Biden has grappled with the elusive goal of Middle East peace. Still, some analysts see reason for cautious optimism.

“There seems to be momentum behind it,” said Jonathan Alterman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “But it’s a mistake to think that this is all resolved. We will have some white-knuckle moments in the coming weeks.”

With inputs from Reuters