Gaza war’s climate cost exceeds annual emissions of over 100 countries, new research finds

Gaza war’s climate cost exceeds annual emissions of over 100 countries

The first 15 months of Israel’s war on Gaza have generated an estimated 31 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (tCO₂e)—more than the annual emissions of over 100 countries—according to new research released ahead of peer review by One Earth and shared exclusively with The Guardian. The figure underscores a growing call to hold states accountable for the environmental toll of modern warfare.

The study, conducted by researchers from the UK and the US, found that over 99% of the 1.89 million tCO₂e emissions generated between October 2023 and January 2025 were directly linked to Israel’s military actions. By comparison, Hamas-related emissions were negligible—just 3,000 tonnes or 0.2% of the total.

More than half of these emissions stemmed from the use and supply of military equipment, such as bombs, tanks, aircraft, and logistics—much of it supported by 50,000 tonnes of US military supplies shipped to Israel. A further 29.4 million tonnes of CO₂e are expected during the post-war reconstruction phase, as Gaza’s rubble—estimated at 60 million tonnes—is cleared and over 436,000 homes and hundreds of public buildings are rebuilt.

Rebuilding Gaza: A second climate blow

The reconstruction of Gaza, ravaged by Israeli airstrikes and ground assaults, is projected to be as carbon-intensive as Afghanistan’s entire 2023 emissions. Much of Gaza’s solar-powered infrastructure, which once accounted for 25% of its electricity, has been destroyed, forcing the population to rely on diesel-powered generators that contributed 130,000 tonnes of emissions.

Even humanitarian relief is part of the carbon equation: 70,000 aid trucks permitted into Gaza by Israel produced over 40% of the total emissions, despite being condemned by the UN as insufficient for Gaza’s 2.2 million displaced and starving residents.

Regional military emissions climb

The environmental impact extends beyond Gaza. The study estimates that:

Missile exchanges between Israel and Iran have generated over 5,000 tCO₂e, with 80% attributed to Israeli strikes.
Clashes with Hezbollah in Lebanon caused nearly 3,750 tCO₂e, mostly from Israeli bombs.
Houthi rockets from Yemen resulted in only 55 tCO₂e, while Israel’s retaliation produced 50 times that amount.
Previous estimates from the same research group already found that the Alabuga drone program in Russia—backed by Iran—had massive climate implications. This study, however, is the most comprehensive conflict-related carbon audit to date and represents part of a broader movement to include “Scope 3+” wartime emissions in global climate assessments.

Global implications and accountability gaps

Despite the staggering climate cost, militaries are not obligated to report emissions under current UN climate frameworks. Israel’s military, like others, has never disclosed its emissions to the UN, and the voluntary nature of current reporting largely excludes the environmental costs of war, displacement, and reconstruction.

“This is a black hole in climate accountability,” said Hadeel Ikhmais of the Palestinian Environmental Quality Authority. “Wars not only kill people but also release toxic chemicals, destroy infrastructure, and accelerate climate disasters.”

UN special rapporteur Astrid Puentes called the findings a “sobering reminder” of the war’s far-reaching effects. “Whether or not states agree on calling it a genocide, what we are facing is severely impacting all life in Gaza and also threatening human rights globally due to the aggravation of climate change.”