In the aftermath of a renewed declaration of independence by exiled Baloch leaders, Balochistan’s long-standing separatist movement has taken a sharp turn towards India. It wants New Delhi to back their cause morally, diplomatically, and even strategically. The argument, from the Baloch side, is simple: just as India helped liberate Bangladesh in 1971, it should now support a Balochistan that seeks freedom from what they term “Pakistani colonialism.”
But experts have opined that despite the rhetoric, romantic comparisons to Bangladesh, and India’s own historical discomfort with Pakistan’s handling of Balochistan, New Delhi has every reason to approach these overtures with extreme caution.
A struggling movement reaching for relevance
The Baloch struggle for independence is not now. The region was annexed by Pakistan in 1948 following the accession of the princely state of Kalat. Since then, five insurgencies have taken place, each bloodier and more disorganised than the last. The current phase of the conflict, simmering since 2005, has grown deadlier, with a mix of tribal leaders, underground militant outfits, and diaspora activists leading a fractured resistance.
Leaders like Brahumdagh Bugti, Mehran Marri, and Hyrbyair Marri have long sought refuge abroad and have lobbied for international support, with limited success. With the Pakistani state ramping up crackdowns, assassinations, and intelligence operations against Baloch militants both at home and abroad, the movement has become further isolated.
In this context, Baloch leaders reaching out to India isn’t necessarily a mark of strength, it is a desperate cry for legitimacy and leverage. While India has historically expressed concern over human rights abuses in Balochistan, giving overt support to a separatist cause in a neighbouring country would invite serious strategic and diplomatic complications.
The latest overtures
The current round of outreach comes after Indian strikes – under Operation Sindoor – targeting Pakistani terror camps and military assets. Riding on the global spotlight, exiled Baloch leaders used this moment to revive the call for Indian support.
The Baloch leaders have explicitly thanked India for its firm stance against Pakistan and urged the Indian government to extend moral and diplomatic support to Balochistan. They have invoked the Bangladesh precedent multiple times, appealing to India’s appealing to India’s historical moral compass.
Many of the Baloch activists are trying to gain traction in India media, reaching out to policy forums, and even seeking meetings with political leaders. But India had thus far maintained a deliberate silence – a signal that while New Delhi is aware of the noise, it is far from convinced.
Why New Delhi should pay little heed
Speaking to Moneycontrol, experts have urged caution in India’s engagement with the Balochistan issue, warning that extending overt support to Baloch activists could have serious diplomatic repercussions.
"Baloch activists have been reaching out to India for years, but New Delhi has never extended open support. The question remains—how is terrorism in Kashmir any different from what’s happening in Balochistan? Despite what happened (referring to Pahalgam terror attack), many countries still hesitated to back India. You may choose to support the Baloch cause, but what will it truly achieve on the global stage? That's the harsh reality—internationally, things don’t work that way. India also needs to consider how the Middle East approaches such conflicts. It's a very complex situation right now," analyst and Ascendia Strategies Managing Partner, Amitabh Tiwari, told Moneycontrol.
Balochistan is not Bangladesh: The Bangladesh war was rooted in a near-genocidal repression of the Bengali population by West Pakistan, with over 10 million refugees entering India and placing a massive humanitarian and economic burden on the country. Back then, India had legitimate reasons to intervene, both morally and strategically.
However, Balochistan is different. It has no contiguous border with India. The Baloch population is much smaller, and the movement lacks unified political or military leadership. There is no mass exodus into Indian territory yet.
No strategic gains, only diplomatic fallout: Supporting Baloch separatists would immediately provide Pakistan with ammunition to internationally equate Balochistan with Kashmir, muddying the moral distinction India has long maintained — that Kashmir is an internal issue, while Balochistan is Pakistan’s failure of governance.
Tiwari, in conversation with Moneycontrol, also highlighted the fact that any intervention by India will allow Pakistan to again needle it on the Kashmir issue.
Such a move would also alienate key regional players, including Iran, which borders Balochistan and has its own restive Baloch minority. Iran has previously warned against any external support to Baloch separatists, and India cannot afford to ruffle feathers in Tehran amid ongoing regional realignments and trade initiatives like Chabahar.
Moreover, overt Indian involvement would push China and Pakistan closer, as Balochistan is critical to China’s Belt and Road Initiative (CPEC). Beijing would interpret any Indian move as a threat to its investments in Gwadar, leading to increased Chinese intelligence and military cooperation with Pakistan in the region.
Movement lacks ground strength: Most of the Baloch separatist noise is being made from Europe or North America. On the ground, Pakistan has successfully decimated much of the movement’s leadership and broken its cohesion. While groups like the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA), Baloch Liberation Front (BLF), and United Baloch Army (UBA) carry out occasional attacks, these are often seen as sporadic and disconnected, lacking the coordination or popular backing required for a serious rebellion.
India knows better than to bet on a weak, scattered insurgency that is largely dependent on diaspora voices and foreign media for relevance.
Humanitarian sympathy doesn’t mean strategic support: India’s stand on Balochistan has always been measured and rights-based. It has focused on Pakistan’s human rights violations and suppression of dissent. Indian Prime Ministers and diplomats have referenced Balochistan at global forums to expose Pakistan’s hypocrisy on Kashmir, but that does not, and should not, translate into support for secessionist demands.
New Delhi would gain little by formalising ties with a movement that even the international community views with caution, fearing the precedent it would set in South Asia’s volatile geography.
Pakistan’s crackdown in Balochistan: A face-saving after Sindoor
Following the devastating strikes carried out by the Indian Armed Forces under Operation Sindoor – which destroyed Pakistan’s key air defence systems and airbases – its Army has gone into damage-control mode. And nowhere is this more evident than in Balochistan.
Facing humiliation on the battlefield, the Pakistani Army has intensified its crackdown on Baloch activists, civilians, and suspected sympathisers. Multiple reports from human rights watchdogs and Baloch political groups confirm a surge in enforced disappearances, mass detentions, and extrajudicial killings since the operation.
This is a familiar tactic by Rawalpindi: when embarrassed externally, punish dissent internally. The Baloch people, long regarded as an inconvenient voice in Pakistan’s nationhood narrative, are once again paying the price for Islamabad's military miscalculations.
Speaking to Moneycontrol, Dr Shalini Chawla, Distinguished Fellow at Centre for Air Power Studies opined, “The Baloch struggle is bound to intensify in the coming days, and the province will continue to pose a serious challenge for the Pakistan Army. It’s highly unlikely that Islamabad’s policy towards Balochistan will undergo any meaningful change. On the contrary, the military is using its perceived success in the India-Pakistan crisis to project strength. It is expected to become even more assertive and militarised in its approach to suppressing any form of dissent or resistance”.
India’s strategic restraint: The right posture
While India has ample reason to highlight Pakistan’s internal repression, especially in Balochistan, it must resist the temptation to treat Baloch overtures as a strategic opportunity. Instead, New Delhi must understand them for what they are: a tactical outreach from a fractured movement trying to exploit Pakistan’s embarrassment post-Sindoor.
Publicly embracing Baloch separatists would allow Pakistan to shift the global narrative from its failure in Sindoor to India’s alleged meddling. It would dilute India’s long-standing position that Kashmir is an internal matter and hand Pakistan a false moral equivalence.
Strategically, the ambiguity India currently maintains is more effective than overt alignment. New Delhi gains more by keeping the option of support in the shadows - using it as a geopolitical pressure point rather than a formal alliance.
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