China expands influence throughout Asia via 'grey-zone' means

Xi Jinping

China is expanding its influence across Asia through calculated "grey-zone" tactics, using incremental moves in the South China Sea, Taiwan, and the Himalayas to avoid direct conflict while steadily asserting control.

China is slowly expanding its influence throughout Asia through calculated "grey-zone" actions—actions designed to maximise influence without provoking outright conflict, as reported by The Wall Street Journal. Along the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait to the Himalayan border, Beijing's approach is an ongoing campaign of stepped-out moves that test and exhaust its rivals.

South China Sea: A decade of unabated expansion

Beijing's South China Sea supremacy has been built over the last decade through island-building, militarisation, and frequent patrols. China's coast guard and maritime militia, backed by military bases like Mischief Reef, have asserted control over disputed waters, vastly outnumbering regional forces.

The Philippines has been subjected to heavy pressure, particularly since 2022, with China suppressing resupply efforts and asserting control of features like Sabina Shoal. Faced with international criticism and the 2016 tribunal ruling against China's broad claims, Beijing has doubled down on its positions, leaving the Philippines struggling to protect its nation without access to its mutual defence agreement with the US.

Taiwan: Escalating air and naval pressure

China's grey-zone campaign extends to Taiwan as well, where almost daily military sorties and exercises have increased in frequency and intensity. From 972 intrusions into Taiwan's air-defence zone in 2021 to over 3,000 in 2023, Beijing has gradually escalated pressure.

Beyond air activity, China has deployed warships, drones, and even high-altitude balloons to monitor and intimidate Taiwan. Large-scale military exercises, like those following US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s 2022 visit, have simulated blockades and showcased China’s growing capabilities.

Experts warn that Beijing will not decide to go to war directly but can quarantine, shutting off sea and air supply without direct confrontation. This will further isolate Taiwan without directly facing the US.

Himalayas: Silent settlement and border expansion

On its borders with India and Bhutan, China is advancing by settling in disputed territories. It has done this incrementally but continuously along Bhutanese borders and built villages, administrative offices, and roads in disputed territory—an endeavour that mirrors its thrust along the South China Sea.

The settlements, often occupied by resettled Tibetan families, consolidate China's positions and create irreversible facts on the ground. Bhutan protested Chinese actions beyond mutually accepted boundary lines, but Beijing simply continues to reinforce its foothold.

A calculated expansion strategy

Within those zones, the policy of China is one of gradual advances, avoiding direct confrontations but progressively shifting the military balance. And, as noted by Bonny Lin of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, China's grey-zone activities demand creative responses by its competitors, who have no idea of how to hit back at manoeuvres short of war.