Amid Trump-Munir photo-ops, US analyst says 'reality check is in order'

Pak PM Shehbaz Sharif and army chief Asim Munir meet Donald Trump in the White House

An audience with Donald Trump, crucial deals across critical areas, and increased engagements with high-ranking US officials: Pakistan is indeed having its moment in the sun amid Washington's diplomatic largesse over the recent months.

Recently, Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and army chief Asim Munir met Trump in the Oval Office, clinching another opportunity to project Islamabad as a close US ally in the aftermath of escalation with India in May.

It was also a rare chance - post the 2021 US troop withdrawl from Afghanistan - to use its position to help Trump win back the Bagram airbase and capitalise on broader global interests vis-a-vis the Middle East.

However, US-based analyst Michael Kugelman noted that the resurgence in bilateral ties, though real, are quite "aspirational and exploratory" in nature.

"The US-Pak resurgence is real, but mainly aspirational & exploratory. Mostly high level engagements focused on looking into potential cooperation. But aside from a bit on CT (counterterrorism), few substantive collaborations. This, coupled w/Trump’s mercurialness, mean a reality check is in order," Kugelman said on X.

The analyst's remarks suggested that while Pakistan is making hay while the sun shines, Islamabad may soon find itself in the ignored column as far as US is concerned.

Kugelman said that the new areas of partnership between US and Pakistan are limited by several constraints.

"I’ve said previously that the apparent new focus areas of partnership-critical minerals, crypto, energy, CT-likely aren’t sustainable b/c of uncertainties, constraints & other limitations. A more sustained relationship more likely to emerge from a stronger set of new pillars," he said.

The remarks underpin the expedient nature of the recent bonhomie between US and Pakistan, which most experts have defined as a marriage of convenience.

In an earlier analysis of the Pakistan-US relationship, Moneycontrol had noted how Trump's approach to countries like Pakistan is consistent with his broader foreign policy thinking which prioritises near-term objectives over long-term strategic goals.

There are several strategic reasons why Trump has been courting Pakistan. Among these are his desire for access to Pakistan’s critical minerals and oil reserves, renewed security and counterterrorism cooperation and Islamabad’s influence in Middle East diplomacy.

Trump is also leveraging Pakistan’s outreach to showcase his dealmaking abilities and to claim credit for brokering the ceasefire with India, which has been rejected by New Delhi.

Speaking to India Today recently, former Indian High Commissioner to Pakistan Ajay Bisaria said that President Trump may eventually grow frustrated with Pakistan if Islamabad fails to meet US expectations.

Kugelman had earlier said that the recent upswing in ties is due to Pakistan's repeated attempts to get the attention of a "relentlessly transactional administration" but warned that the relationship shouldn't be views as having "long-term potential" since policies change from one administration to another, sometimes even midstream.

Hussain Nadim, a US-based critic of Munir’s rule, had earlier told Financial Times that Pakistan's "unelected leaders and military officials" are willing to overpromise to appeal to what they think is Trump’s "narcissism". "Trump and his advisers may eventually run out of patience when they see that Pakistan is not delivering.”

However, it's a risk that Islamabad appears willing to take for the sake of headline-grabbing photo-ops and glad-handing with Trump administration officials