How India’s path to WTC Final has narrowed after brutal South Africa loss

India’s path to the WTC Final narrows after brutal South Africa loss (BCCI Photo)

Teams used to be afraid to travel to India to play Test cricket. Unbeaten at home for more than a decade, the Indian Test team carried an aura of invincibility that few dared challenge. For years, visiting teams arrived knowing they would most likely leave humbled.

That grip over home conditions began to loosen last year, when New Zealand stunned India by handing them a 3-0 series whitewash that shook the foundations of India’s proud Test fortress. If that blow felt jarring, the recent 2-0 loss to South Africa cuts even deeper. The 408 run hammering in Guwahati stands as India’s heaviest Test defeat by runs.

Across the two matches in the series, India’s batters mustered an average of just 15.23 — the poorest ever for them in a home series. And, for the first time this century, a Test series at home passed without a single century from the Indian camp.

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The numbers paint an even more worrying picture. For the first time in 25 years, India have lost five Tests within the space of two home seasons. More alarmingly, it is the first instance in 66 years of India suffering five home losses in just seven months. These are not mere stats but warning signs for a team once invincible on home soil.

This series defeat is not only a stain on India’s proud home record and legacy on their own turf, it is also a sledgehammer blow to their hopes of qualifying for the World Test Championship (WTC) final. A morale deflating defeat in Guwahati has left the Indian team in fifth place on the 2025-27 WTC points table.

They have four wins, four defeats and one draw from nine matches. From the three series completed so far, the team have earned 52 points out of a possible 108, giving them a points percentage of 48.15 and placing them below Australia, South Africa, Sri Lanka and Pakistan. Nine more games remain for India in the ongoing WTC cycle: three Test series, of which only one will be played at home.

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India will not play Test cricket again until August 2026, when they tour Sri Lanka for a two-match away series in the WTC 2025-27 cycle. That will be followed by another away assignment in October and November against New Zealand, a country where they have not won a single Test since 2008-09, for a two-match series. Australia will then visit India for a five-match series, which will be India’s final Test engagement of the current WTC cycle.

There is a tough road ahead for the two time WTC runners up. For India to qualify, they will need six or seven victories from their last nine Tests, with hardly any margin for drawn matches and none at all for another failed series. All three series will be challenging. Beating Sri Lanka in their own conditions looks a Herculean task at present, given the nature of the pitches there and the way India’s batters have struggled against spin. New Zealand have been a strong outfit at home for many years and have a good record against India. Seam and swing will test the Indian batters, after which a determined Australia will arrive with the ambition of toppling India.

Mathematically, India remain in the race. In practical terms, though, the whitewash from the Proteas has left them scrambling from the back of the pack. Another stumble, and even a perfect run at home against the Aussies might not be enough to keep their 2027 WTC final hopes alive.