How long before the world's fastest marathoners break the 2-hour barrier?

Kelvin Kiptum in Chicago on October 8, 2023. (Image source: Instagram/ kelvinkiptumcheruiyot)

When Kelvin Kiptum broke the marathon world record in Chicago last Sunday, he reignited the sub-2-hour conversation. Kiptum’s time of 2:00:35 (two hours and 35 seconds) in Chicago indicates that a sub-2-hour timing over a distance of 42.195kms is not just possible, but inevitable.

The 23-year-old Kiptum broke the world record, veteran Eliud Kipchoge’s 2:01:09 set last year in Berlin, by a massive 34 seconds. Kiptum, who has run just three (International Association of Athletics Federations or IAAF-recognized) marathons in his life, came close to Kipchoge’s record once before, with a scorching 2:01:25 in London in April. But it was Chicago where he finally made it past the record, getting a world record at a relatively young age (for marathoners) and with little international experience.

The 2-hour mark in marathon for long remained a mythical number, just like the four-minute mile once was before Roger Bannister did a 3:59:4 in 1954. Kipchoge has already achieved the mark, a 1:59:40 in 2019, which has not been recognized by the IAAF due to the conditions of the race.

The inevitable breaking of the 2-hour barrier, whether achieved by Kipchoge or Kiptum or someone else, is also a competition between rival shoe manufacturers, whose technological advancements have contributed to record timings. Kiptum’s shoes, a Nike Dev 163 prototype, will be available for sale in January, according to reports. Netherland’s Sifan Hasan has the second fastest time for women in marathons, 2:13:44, also set in Chicago, wearing the same model of shoes.

Tigist Assefa of Ethiopia has the best timing ever among women, of 2:11:53, set in Berlin this year but in a pair of Adidas Adizero Adios Evo Pro 1—supposedly the fastest and lightest shoe (138gm). According to a report in Runners World, the shoe is designed for one race or one marathon, plus familiarization time.

The “battle” between Nike and Adidas, significant as it is, remains a sidebar in a larger story of timings, which can play out as soon as within the next year. With Kiptum setting the bar now, there is no stopping Kipchoge from aiming for higher.

Kipchoge has the six World Marathon Majors next year. Tokyo is in March, where he has the course record (2:02:40) followed by Boston in April, and London, where he again has the course record (2:02:37). He could defend his Olympic title in Paris 2024 with a world record, though August in Paris would probably be too hot for runners to get great timings.

Another reason for the certainty of the 2-hour breach is the frequency of quick timings. Nine of the top 10 fastest marathoners on record - eligible courses - have achieved their feats in the last five years. Three of them have been achieved in the last two years, 2022 and 2023. All top 10 marks belong to African runners, another evidence—if any was needed—of their pre-eminence in the discipline. The top 10 fastest marathons have all been run in the last six years, with three of them coming this year alone.

In many athletic endeavours, records continue to be set as athletes evolve, better training techniques and diets emerge, besides the use of more advanced equipment like, in this case, shoes. There has been in recent times a conscious attempt to go after the 2-hour mark, particularly by Kipchoge, a five-time world champion in the 5000m who switched to road running about a decade ago. He participated in the Delhi half-marathon in 2016, at a time when he was still making the switch to the longest distance.

At 38, Kipchoge is running out of time, literally, and seeking to stamp his legacy in the long-distance discipline. In 2016, Nike and National Geographic collaborated to document, called Breaking2, the quest to shatter the 2-hour barrier. The following year, in Monza, Italy, Kipchoge missed the mark by 25 seconds, finishing at 2:00:25. That attempt was in a Nike ZoomX Vaporfly 4%, which was later refined to Nike ZoomX Vaporfly Next% used in his subsequent attempt.

On October 12, 2019, in a carefully crafted race sponsored by chemical company INEOS in Vienna, Austria, Kipchoge achieved the target with 1:59:40.2 in the INEOS 1:59 Challenge. The timing is not considered an official record because the race was not run in open marathon conditions and had an army of 41 pacesetters. The race was an attempt at showcasing what was possible, whether or not the record books accept it, but also to set the standard for what marathoners need to aim for.

“I’ve got no plan to run under 2 hours but only to improve my own record,” Reuters reported Kiptum as saying in Nairobi, just days after setting his Chicago record. But it’s unlikely that Kiptum, who won his debut 26.2-mile race in Valencia last December, is not reminded of the 120-minute target every now and then.

For the 2-hour mark to fall, a lot of factors need to align, including the right conditions, temperature, altitude and participants. Kiptum and Kipchoge are the frontrunners to get there, among several others, to register a mark that will immortalize them, just like the four-minute mile did for Bannister.