2023 NBA Finals preview: Miami Heat and Denver Nuggets to battle it out in winner takes all

Nikola Jokic didn’t win a third consecutive MVP award. But he has the chance to win his first Bill Russell Finals MVP award by the time this series draws to a close. (Image via Twitter Denver Nuggets)

Here we are. After six weeks of playoff basketball and more than seven months of NBA action, we are finally only a couple of weeks away from having the 2023 NBA champion. The two contenders for the Larry O’Brien trophy are the Miami Heat and the Denver Nuggets. While the Heat have won the finals thrice before (2006, 2012, 2013), the Nuggets are making their maiden finals appearance. The Heat are also making their second finals appearance in four years while this is Denver’s chance to fulfill a 47-year-long championship drought for a franchise that came into the NBA in 1976-77.

Here’s a quick look at the key talking points as both teams get ready for a best-of-seven game series.

Miami Heat: A Cinderella-run

The Heat have surprised many. They have become the first play-in team to reach the NBA Finals and the second number eight seed to reach this far after the 1999 New York Knicks. Not bad for a team which lost their opening play-in game to the Atlanta Hawks and were a few minutes away from being eliminated by the Chicago Bulls in the second play-in game.

But the Heat survived. They knocked out the number one-ranked Milwaukee Bucks in five games and got past a gutsy New York Knicks team in six games. The Heat almost allowed the Boston Celtics to make a historic comeback from 0-3 down, but went on to win the conference finals in seven games. The Heat are as resilient a team as any in NBA history. Even injuries to key players couldn’t halt their progress, which is a hat-tip to their pluck and well-coached roster.

Denver Nuggets: True to form

The Nuggets are, undoubtedly, the better of the two teams so far as the form guide is concerned. They were the Western Conference’s best team in the regular season and their playoff run has been indicative of that. They bested the Minnesota Timberwolves in five games, took six games to knock off a spirited challenge from the Phoenix Suns and then swept the Los Angeles Lakers in four straight games. That they eliminated stalwarts like Kevin Durant and LeBron James from the postseason (and a handful of other all-stars), says a lot about just how good they have been.

Denver has one obvious disadvantage, which is the lack of finals experience. Unlike Miami, none of Denver’s frontline players, barring Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Jeff Green, have ever experienced the pressure that comes with playing on the NBA’s biggest stage. However, Denver’s homecourt advantage nullifies their finals inexperience. This is a significant plus for them, considering how teams have struggled to play in high-altitude Denver in these playoffs. The Nuggets have validated this advantage by having a perfect 8-0 home record at Ball Arena in the postseason and an overall 42-7 record in the games they have played this entire season. Never mind their finals experience, the Heat will have their hands full when they visit Denver.

The alpha star

It’s hard to look at anyone other than Jimmy Butler for the Heat. Butler has exuded confidence and walked the talk in these playoffs. He was scintillating in the first round against Milwaukee, averaging 37.6 ppg on 60 percent shooting. Since then, he has hit only one 30-point game, but averaged almost six more points in this postseason (28.5 ppg) than he did in the regular season (22.9). Let’s be clear about this: Miami will go only as far as Butler takes them.

Nikola Jokic didn’t win a third consecutive MVP award. But he has the chance to win his first Bill Russell Finals MVP award by the time this series draws to a close. The Joker has been sensational for Denver in the postseason, averaging 29.9 ppg, 13.3 rpg and 10.3 apg while shooting 54 percent from the field and 47 percent from deep. He has posted eight triple-doubles in Denver’s incredible playoff run, with teams having no answer to slow him down. This could well be Jokic’s big moment.

Key stat

The Miami Heat ranked among the bottom five teams in the league when it came to three-point shooting during the 82-game long regular season. The Heat shot just 34.4 percent from downtown, which was an efficiency mark better than only three other teams in the 30-team league. However, the Heat’s impressive postseason run has seen them torch their opponents from 3-point territory. The Heat have shot the three-ball at a remarkably high efficiency rate of 39 percent over the first three rounds. Caleb Martin (43.8 percent), Gabe Vincent (39 percent) and Duncan Robinson (44.6 percent) have been particularly devastating for the Heat in this area.

The Nuggets have been stellar with their offence all-season long. But the postseason has seen them play some smothering defence, particularly against a much-hyped offensive team such as the Phoenix Suns. Altogether, the Nuggets improved their defensive rating from 113.5 in the regular season (15th) to 111.7 in these playoffs. Thanks to the improvement, Denver now enjoys a net rating of 8.0. That is nearly twice as much as second-placed Miami, who enjoy a net rating of 4.6 in these playoffs.

The pick

Miami have punched well above their weight. The lesson they have given everyone is that it is not wise to count them out. In Eric Spoelstra, they have a basketball savant as their head coach and a group of back-against-the-wall-ballers. They are willing to give it everything to reach their goal.

Unfortunately for Miami, though, this is where the clock strikes twelve on their postseason run. Denver have too much talent on their roster, with Jamal Murray forming a terrific tandem with Jokic. Aaron Gordon, Michael Porter Jr and Bruce Brown have played their complementary roles to perfection. The Nuggets have home court, they have the bigger star in Jokic and they just look more ready to win it all. Denver in five.