Lt Gen. (Retd) Syed Ata Hasnain: ‘We should enhance our contacts with the Islamic world, especially the Middle East’

With the Taliban doing some plain-speaking on Kashmir on the heels of the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) chief Lt Gen Faiz Hameed’s visit to Kabul on Saturday (September 4), Lt Gen (Retd) Syed Ata Hasnain—the general who used the “heart as weapon” style of functioning in Kashmir—clearly sees the events casting shadows in the Valley.

The former general said there could be efforts to exploit the situation in Kashmir while everyone's attention seems to be elsewhere. “However, our ground domination will ensure this does not manifest negatively or leave any impact,” he said. “What we need to be careful of is the immediate period before winter this year. Pakistan has a well-oiled recruitment and infiltration system, and would wish to put this in place. India would need to be careful about ensuring no disturbance to our counter-infiltration grid,” he added.

With the resurgence of the Taliban, Lt Gen. (Retd) Hasnain has been speaking about the shifting sands in the “graveyard of empires” with the special focus on the impact on Kashmir.

“Taliban-like thinking does exist in J&K,” he said. “It remains behind a shroud but comes forward in times of crisis. It is not in favour of India, and efforts to de-radicalize this segment will take many years. Taliban’s temporary success is likely to inspire some elements within this segment.”

In an exclusive chat, the former military general argued that amid the rise of the Taliban, New Delhi’s ability to face dual or collusive threats from China and Pakistan must continue to develop comprehensively. Excerpts:

Will the fall of Kabul to the Taliban have any impact on Kashmir?

The ripple effect of Afghanistan always tends to travel to J&K. However, India’s experience in handling the Pakistan-sponsored proxy conflict over the last 30 years holds us in good stead today. From a military security perspective, I think most of our counter-measures are in place. There are non-traditional areas of security which we may need to keep our focus on. Inspirational messaging to the youth through Pakistan, radical rabble-rousing and reinitiating ideas of Azadi with a religious fervour should be expected. It is not necessary that any of this will succeed. Our agencies have done a good job in neutralizing some of those networks which support proxy war. But others still exist and there should be no let up on neutralizing these by all those battling the proxy conflict in J&K.

The dramatic change in Afghanistan is seen by many as Pakistan’s victory and India’s loss. Do you also see it that way?

Pakistan has received an impetus in terms of its influence in Afghanistan. India may have been temporarily checked, but there is no question of being mated. This is a dynamic situation and will keep progressing. We need agile diplomacy of which we are quite capable. Taliban is no monolith, it has factions and cliques. We could establish linkages with them and continue to deliver goodwill and soft power to the people. Pakistan can offer no medical facilities, no training in administration, advanced education, etc., which the Taliban will require to run the state. However, we must also remain in sync with the international community keeping our own interests in mind at all times.

General officer Commanding (GoC) of Srinagar-based 15 Corps Lieutenant General D.P. Pandey recently said that American forces pulling out of Afghanistan may push some militants into Kashmir. There have been Afghan fighters in Kashmir in the past. Do you think they can again be diverted to the Valley?

The GoC is right. There could be efforts to try and exploit the situation while attention seems elsewhere. However, our ground domination will ensure this does not manifest negatively or leave any impact. What we need to be careful of is the immediate period before winter this year. Pakistan has a well-oiled recruitment and infiltration system and would wish to put this in place. India would need to be careful about ensuring no disturbance to our counter-infiltration grid.

We cannot rule out those who were once part of the Afghan National Army joining in nefarious activity for survival either. A mercenary can be anyone. However, I can assure you the Indian Army is adept at this type of fighting and our Rashtriya Rifles is beyond compare as a top-class counter-terrorism and counter-insurgency force. Afghan mercenaries have tested our capability before, and are aware of the quality here.

It’s not as if J&K is a hot priority for the Taliban, but yet it should draw our focus because conditions of alienation and networks for terror do still exist and could yet trigger something more serious.

The world is in flux, even more than it was in 1989. A post-Covid world order is said to be in the making. New combinations and linkages are being attempted but with no finality. Ideologies remain in mismatch and national interests don't seem to converge in many of these cases.

Now, with the situation in Afghanistan, again there is no finality. India must maximize her options and not be tied down by Pakistani machinations. We must firmly remain with the US, conditional to our strategic autonomy in dealing with other countries such as with Iran as per mutual interests.

Similarly we should enhance our contacts with the Islamic world, especially the Middle East nations such as Saudi Arabia and UAE. Tactically, it is also good to remain engaged with Tajikistan and Uzbekistan besides also consulting our smaller neighbours within South Asia.

How do you see the future of militancy in Kashmir, keeping in view the changes in the geo-political scenario in the region?

It depends on the line that the Taliban adopts. If it wishes to aggregate terror groups to Afghanistan, give them safe havens and sponsor terror in the region with the help of Pakistan, as part of the old agenda, then obviously J&K will very much be in the loop of violence and counter-violence. It is too early to say anything.

Read more: Two years after revocation of Article 370, militancy still a fact of life in J&K

Social media in Kashmir has thrown up speculations about the possible arrival of Taliban in Kashmir. What do you make of this, and should it worry New Delhi?

Social media on Kashmir affairs is mostly uninformed. It’s not as if J&K is a hot priority for the Taliban but yet it should draw our focus because conditions of alienation and networks for terror do still exist and could yet trigger something more serious. It’s the...optics of a defeated and helpless superpower that anti-national elements will take great inspiration from. Yet we are very well-prepared for a whole spectrum of threats, given 32 years of handling J&K. We need to keep tabs in all domains—military, social, economic, police, legal, diplomatic and intelligence.

Some people assert that there is an acceptance of Taliban ideology in Kashmir. What do you make of it?

Pakistan’s thrust in creating the Taliban was to promote obscurantist ideology in the region which would link J&K to Pakistan, Afghanistan and the Gulf region where Saudis were promoting the same. It would also help cement Pakistan’s hold over Afghanistan for the strategic depth it sought. As long as Sufi ideology existed in J&K, it would help link that region closely to Indian secularism. In the 1990s and the new millennium, Pakistan sponsored the growth of obscurantist Islam in J&K with change of hands of hundreds of mosques and a whole new generation grew up inspired by ideologies alien to Islam of J&K. Therefore, Taliban-like thinking does exist in J&K. It remains behind a shroud but comes forward in times of crisis. It is not in favour of India, and efforts to de-radicalize this segment will take many years. Taliban’s temporary success is likely to inspire some elements within this segment. The future dispensation will depend upon how far Taliban succeeds in governing the nation state and what its attitude will be towards existence within norms of the comity of nations. In any case, India should always be prepared for potential exploitation by such elements.

What should be the military strategy of India to deal with the Taliban?

There is no need to look towards a military strategy to deal with the Taliban because if the Taliban has to target India, it will only do so under sponsorship of Pakistan. It is in dealing with Pakistan that India needs a military strategy which will work in sync with its political and diplomatic strategy.

Pakistan needs to be isolated within the international community. The first coming of global terror was at Pakistan’s instance; it managed to escape international targeting despite the ire. The second coming of global terror is in the making in Afghanistan, and Pakistan is again behind it. This time India must succeed in having Pakistan sanctioned. The FATF (Financial Action Task Force) strictures will have to be reapplied with different interpretations.

Militarily, India’s ability to seek and execute multiple options of response below the threshold of nuclear strikes must continue to be developed. Internally, J&K must be stabilized even further than what has been achieved through fast-track political activity and governance outreach. The potential for retriggering instability in J&K has to be neutralized in the bud, and we must remain watchful of this. Lastly, our ability to face dual or collusive threats from China and Pakistan must continue to develop comprehensively.

Do you think the 5 August decision prompted Pakistan and China to come closer?

It was inevitable that China and Pakistan would progressively come closer as India and the US became more strategically linked. Thus it is not the decisions of August 5 2019 which spurred China and Pakistan to come closer, but India’s mounting strategic confidence as a result of her strategic partnership with the US and the chain of events which only helped cement that confidence. These events were the Surgical Strikes 2016, the handling of Doklam 2017, the Balakot strike 2019 and finally the decision of August 5, 2019. No single event can be attributed to this but rather the combined weight of all of them.