Sonowal or Sarma? Who will be the next chief minister of Assam?

File photo of (L to R) incumbent Assam CM Sarbananda Sonowal, Union Home Minister Amit Shah and strong contender for Assam chief minister's post Himanta Biswa Sarma.

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) after winning the Assam elections has a difficult choice to make: allow incumbent chief minister (CM) Sarbananda Sonowal to continue in his post or pick Himanta Biswa Sarma as the next CM of Assam. Who will finally make the cut?

Even three days after the BJP’s second consecutive victory in the state, the party's central leadership has kept everyone in suspense about its final decision.

The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) secured 75 seats while Congress and its allies bagged 50 in the elections to the 126-member Assam legislative assembly. The counting took place on Sunday, May 2.

“It is clear that either of the two (Sonowal or Sarma) would be the next chief minister. I appeal to all BJP legislators and workers to remain calm till a decision is reached,” BJP state president Ranjeet Kumar Dass told reporters on Tuesday (May 4).

Sarma, whom the local media called ‘super CM’ in the last cabinet because he held multiple portfolios, is a strong contender for the CM post. As the convener of the BJP-led North-East Democratic Alliance (NEDA), a coalition of non-Congress parties, Sarma wields influence across the region.

Known to be a master strategist, Sarma has also been credited with establishing NDA’s dominance in a region that used to be a Congress stronghold until a few years ago.

A former student leader, Sonowal, on the other hand, has his roots in regional politics. He is regarded as a ‘Jatiya Nayak’ (state hero of Assam), for his petition on the basis of which the Supreme Court had struck down the controversial Illegal Migrants (Determination by Tribunals) Act, 1983 or IMDT Act, on July 12, 2005.

The law was viewed as an instrument to protect suspected illegal Bangladeshi immigrants, a highly contentious issue that had led to the six-year anti-foreigner agitation in Assam in the 1980s.

Performance and image

Sarma has an edge over Sonowal if one goes by his performance in the last cabinet. Apart from handling key portfolios such as finance, PWD (public works) and education, Sarma headed (and is still in-charge of) the health department that many believe had successfully tackled the first wave of the Covid-19 pandemic last year.

Sarma could be seen at the forefront of Assam’s fight against the pandemic, working round-the-clock, visiting hospitals and managing the entire health work force. Even the World Health Organization (WHO) showered praise on Assam’s Covid management system.

“The state of Assam in North-East India amalgamated testing, tracing and treatment with strengthening its strong primary health centres (PHC) to ensure COVID-19 pandemic response services reached everyone in the state, including communities in difficult-to-reach areas,” a WHO report said.

And it was quite natural that Sarma hogged the limelight during this crucial period while CM Sonowal remained out of media focus. The Covid crisis also spurred the growth of digital media as people remained glued to social media platforms and Sarma’s followers and loyalists ensured that he got maximum publicity for his work.

There is a perception that Sarma is a ‘good manager’ – be it in governance or politics. Those within the party rooting for Sarma to become next the CM feel he could be an asset given his vast networking skills and his uncanny ability to get the job done.

On the other hand, Sonowal as a chief minister is known for his ‘zero-tolerance’ against corruption. The saffron party had accused the previous Congress government of corruption and mis-governance. After taking charge in 2016, Sonowal had launched a major campaign to root out the menace.

One of his major achievements was the crackdown on the graft-ridden Assam Public Service Commission (APSC), the government’s main recruiting agency for bureaucratic and state police service jobs.

At least 67 people, including former APSC chairman Rakesh Kumar Paul, were arrested in a cash-for-job scam in 2016.

Last year, more than 50 people, including a retired Assam Police DIG, a serving SP and a BJP functionary were nabbed in a statewide raid in connection with a question paper leak case.

The recruitment exam for 597 police sub-inspector posts was cancelled following this incident. Sonowal directed State Level Police Recruitment Board (SLPRB) to re-conduct the examination later.

Swift action by the state government led to the arrest of all the accused, one of whom is the brother of a former chief secretary of Assam. This incident provided a significant boost to Sonowal’s image as an anti-corruption crusader.

Tough choice

Choosing between Sonowal and Sarma will be tough for Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Home Minister Amit Shah and BJP president J.P. Nadda, given that any error in judgement could spark unrest within the party -something the BJP cannot afford after its loss in the West Bengal assembly polls.

An error in judgement could spark unrest within the party; something the BJP cannot afford after its loss in the West Bengal assembly polls.

It is said that Sarma had the upper hand in the selection of candidates for the just-concluded elections. All the 7-8 names Sarma had proposed had secured tickets and were elected. They would add to the list of loyalists Sarma already has within the party and the last cabinet.

All this indicates that Sarma is on a strong-footing and the BJP leadership may have to give weightage to his candidature.

Past forward

Sonowal had served as Union minister for sports and youth affairs, before taking charge as CM of Assam in 2016.

Sonowal was the president of the influential All Assam Students’ Union (AASU) in the 1990s, before joining the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP), which is now a BJP ally. He quit AGP over his differences with its leadership and joined BJP in 2011.

He was immediately appointed as a member of the BJP national executive and later became the state president of the party. He was elected to the 16th Lok Sabha from the Lakhimpur constituency.

In May 2016, he won the Majuli assembly seat and was sworn in as the 14th chief minister of Assam.

Like Sonowal, Sarma also began his political journey as an AASU functionary. He later joined the Congress and was mentored by then chief minister Hiteswar Saikia. His political career took off in 2001 when he won the Jalukbari assembly seat and became a minister in the Tarun Gogoi cabinet a year later.

Between 2002 and 2014, Sarma handled key portfolios - both as a state and cabinet minister – such as agriculture, planning and development, finance, health, education, and the Assam Accord Implementation department.

However, as a minister in the Tarun Gogoi cabinet, Sarma had his fair share of controversies as well. He was questioned by the Central Bureau of Investigation in connection with the multi-crore Saradha chit fund scam that rocked eastern India in 2013.

Sarma quit his ministerial post after Congress leader Rahul Gandhi reportedly refused to make him the CM despite his claim of support from 52 legislators in July 2014. He joined the BJP a year later.