As upswing in air travel continues, plan for winter now

As the aviation industry is expected to sustain its growth momentum with the country’s economy set to grow still further, the ministry of civil aviation, needs to start preparing right away for the winter schedule.

The performance data of domestic operations for May 2023, released by the Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA) last Thursday, once again reaffirmed the trend — the upswing in demand for air travel continues unabated. Domestic airlines carried over 132 lakh passengers in May 2023, the highest for a month thus far. The cumulative total of passengers recorded for the first five months of the calendar year 2023 has been an impressive 636.07 lakhs, an increase of 36.1 percent over 467.37 lakh passengers flown during the corresponding period of 2022. Adjusted for number of days in a month, every successive month from January to May has shown growth.

Shortage of capacity due suspension of flights by Go First at the beginning of May enabled all major carriers to record a significantly higher load factor in excess of 90 percent — probably, a first again.  The government-owned Alliance Air (80.3 percent) was an exception as were the three minnows of the industry — Fly Big, IndiaOne Air and Star Air, which collectively flew just 43,000 passengers in May 2023.

Indigo Continues To Soar

Indigo, the market leader, seized the opportunity provided by Go First’s exit from the market, to further increase its market share to a staggering 61.4 percent, which means that more than six of every ten passengers in the domestic market patronised Indigo for flying. The three Tata-owned airlines — Air India, Vistara and Air Asia India — had a combined market share of 26.3 percent. It may be recapitulated that Air India management had less than a year ago set an ambitious target of capturing 30 percent market share for the three Tata-owned airlines in five years. The failure of some airlines to retain their respective market shares is certainly aiding the Air India combine to likely attain that target much faster.

While Akasa airline, still in its first year of operations, has increased its market share from 4 percent to 4.8 percent, the once second-ranking airline, SpiceJet has disappointed again with its market share plummeting to a measly 5.4 percent.

As the industry is expected to sustain its growth momentum with the country’s economy set to grow still further, the ministry of civil aviation, which can pat itself for the quantitative accomplishments — the public uproar on astronomical fares during May and this month notwithstanding — needs to start preparing right away for the winter schedule that kicks in on last Sunday of October.

Plan Ahead

Keeping past experience in view, the ministry should consider adopting a proactive approach with the airlines. Winter months, particularly December and January, have their own set of problems as flights get disrupted/diverted due to fog and inclement weather at many airports in north India. This is often compounded by a shortage of CAT III trained pilots with some airlines for operating flights to certain airports with visibility issues, etc. Airlines, which often cite the shortage of CAT III trained pilots for maintaining schedule integrity after the first few instances of disruptions, can be persuaded to train an adequate number of pilots in the next few months to overcome the shortage. Most airlines, unfortunately, have a tendency to ignore this training aspect on the specious plea that the need is only for a limited period overlooking the havoc that flight disruptions cause to the travelling public.

To also ensure that an adequate number of flights, commensurate with the likely increase in demand, are available, advance planning will be imperative, and of paramount importance. The ministry must therefore sort out the laggards — airlines which can’t be trusted with their flight schedule commitments. SpiceJet, in particular, has been able to operate only half the number of approved flights in the first two months of the current summer schedule for a variety of reasons. Thorough due diligence of defaulting airlines is thus needed as an operational shortfall of one airline is enough to create a problem of seat availability and a resultant spike in airfares, as we witnessed following Go First’s unilateral decision to suddenly suspend flights last month. Let there be no surprises sprung on air travellers this time.

While SpiceJet CEO Ajay Singh has gone on record to state that the airline will be adding ten new aircraft in the next few months, the question to be asked is whether there will be a net accretion of aircraft or these will be replacing existing grounded aircraft. Some of the lessors already have pending cases in the National Company Law Tribunal (NCLT) for repossession of aircraft due to non-payment of lease rentals. The other factor to be looked at in the case of SpiceJet is to check whether it has adequate financial resources for ensuring smooth and uninterrupted operations. As facts don’t infuse adequate confidence, anticipatory action is certainly desirable. Likewise, if Go First airline manages to revive operations — howsoever truncated — it should be categorised as an unreliable airline until it operates its scheduled flights without disruption for at least six months.

Undertake Due Diligence 

The four months available between now and the introduction of the winter schedule should be used for interaction with airlines to assess their preparedness. Due diligence of proposed flight plans, with uncertainties of weather factored in, can be critical for success. Likewise, an assessment of aircraft availability with all airlines, including the number of new aircraft likely to be inducted in coming months, and the number of grounded aircraft that may be restored and made operational, needs to be undertaken.

Since the ultimate blame for the chaos created by airlines is invariably placed at the doors of the ministry of civil aviation and the DGCA, they also need to devise a mechanism for ensuring that the flights committed by an airline for seeking the regulator’s nod are indeed flown and scarcity of seats is not created. This assumes significance as adequate capacity will always act as a check on unreasonable fares, which should be a priority area for the ministry, particularly with general elections only a few months away. Advance and meticulous planning by the ministry will go a long way in ensuring that the winter schedule doesn’t become a winter of discontent for air travellers through inadequate flights in a growth-oriented market, unlikely disruptions and consequent high fares.

Jitender Bhargava is a former executive director of Air India and author of the book, The Descent of Air India. Views are personal and do not represent the stand of this publication.