Sugar production estimates have been repeatedly revised downward since the season began, creating challenges for government policies which were formulated based on an initial projection of 33.3 million tonnes, the industry body said in a statement.
"Thailand tail crop is much better than expected," said Karim Salamon, head of sugar analysis at Wilmar, in comments sent to Reuters.
The downslide in sugar production is expected on account of less rainfall this monsoon which has led to lesser sugarcane plantations.
Indian Sugar Mills' Association (ISMA) on Wednesday released its second advance estimates of sugar production for the 2023-24 marketing year (October-September).
A potential loss that sugar makers may face would depend on the quantum of reduction in the sugar prices, Vivek Saraogi suggested
In the last season that ended on Sept. 30, India allowed mills to export only 6.2 million metric tons of sugar, after permitting them to sell a record 11.1 million tonnes in 2021/22.
An erratic monsoon and deficient rain in key cane growing states have put any export plans on hold till the government has a clear idea about how the crop output is looking.
The Centre is likely to ban export of sugar in the upcoming season, and Moneycontrol learns from officials that a notification to this effect can be expected in the first week of Novembe
The information will have to be updated every Monday on the portal of the Department of Food and Public Distribution. This mandatory weekly disclosure is a proactive step by the Union government to maintain a balanced and fair sugar market
Sugar prices could rise further in the coming months as stocks are falling, and the peak festive season is approaching.
Sugar crops in some of India’s major growing regions are in desperate need of rain as drier conditions threaten the production outlook, which may place more pressure on containing rising food costs.
The revised sugar production estimate is, however, down by 8.88 per cent from the actual production of 35.92 million tonnes in the 2021-22 marketing year (October-September).
In a statement, Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) said sugar production in 2022-23 is estimated at around 340 lakh tonnes after diversion of 45 lakh tonnes of sweetener towards ethanol manufacturing.
India's total sugar production is expected to be the highest ever at 410 lakh tonnes (before diversion for ethanol) in the 2022-23 marketing year.
A food ministry notification issued on November 5 said export quota of 6 million tonne has been permitted from November 1 till May 31, 2023 with an option for millers to export on their own or through exporters or swap with domestic sale quota.
According to a report, sugar exports in the country are likely to climb to roughly 9-10 million tonnes in the sugar season 2022, which begins in October, following lower production in Brazil due to severe weather conditions.
With slump in sugar demand, NFCSF urged the government to allocate lesser sugar quota for sale in the next month. For April, the government has fixed a record sugar sale quota of 22 lakh tonne.
The production, is however, estimated to decline to 307 lakh tonnes in 2018-19 marketing year (October-September) from record 325 lakh tonnes in the previous year, Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) said in a statement.
"As on December 31, 2018, 501 sugar mills were in operation in the country and have produced 110.52 lakh tonnes of sugar, as compared to 103.56 lakh tonnes produced by 505 sugar mills as on 31st December 2017," Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) said in a statement.
The Indian sugar mills have requested Centre for exports backed by loss-mitigation and requested State government to participate in cane pricing, said to Vivek Saraogi, MD Balrampur Chini.
The sugar industry has moved from shortage to surplus that means now the production is more than consumption but this needs to be handled, said Vivek Saraogi, MD, Balrampur Chini Mills.
Sugar production is likely to decline by 19 percent to 20.3 million tonne during sugar year (SY) 2017, due to poor rainfall during previous monsoon seasons in key producing states, ICRA today said in a report.
Abinash Verma, Director General of ISMA, said that the yield in Maharashtra and Karnataka had dropped by more than 40 percent.
Sugar production fell by 19 percent to 16.24 million tonnes during the first five months of the 2016-17 marketing year ending September on lower cane supply in drought-hit states like Maharashtra and Karnataka.
India's sugar production is likely to be lower than government estimates this season, raising the possibility of higher imports by the world's biggest consumer of the sweetener, the chief executive of leading Indian refiner Shree Renuka Sugars told Reuters.