IMF cutting its GDP growth expectations to 6.6 percent is not out of place, he says. The cut could have been bigger. He himself expects a GDP growth of 6.5 percent.
The Reserve Bank of India on Tuesday released the minutes of the first monetary policy committee (MPC) meet.
The growth was largely led by increase in production in core sector industries barring crude oil and natural gas.
The BoP surplus in the October-December quarter stood at USD 4.1 billion against USD 13.2 billion year-on-year, according to RBI.
Pranjul Bhandari, Chief India Economist, HSBC, says inflation could be much higher—almost 5.5 percent— than the 4.5-5 percent forecast in the survey.
Going ahead, Siddhartha Sanyal, chief India economist at Barclays, sees two 25 basis points rate cuts in the first half of 2016. He expects the first rate cut to be in April, post the Budget
Siddhartha Sanyal, Chief India Economist, Barclays tells CNBC-TV18 there has been a marked easing of inflationary pressure even though some concerns about growth remain.
The economic data, released on Monday, showed a weakening services sector, consistent with a pattern of subdued consumption over the past two years, but some leading indicators have already begun to tell a different story.
India's trade deficit for the month of May came in at a three-month low at USD 10.41 billion, marginally lower than USD 10.99 in April. Imports for the month too came in at a three-month low.
I am in the camp that believes the near-term problem for India was macro-economic; it was the current account deficit, it was the fiscal deficit, it was inflation, that has been handled in the near-term, said Atsi Sheth of Moody's Investors Service.
Manufacturing activity in India fell unexpectedly in the last quarter to 51.30, according to official data released Monday. Analysts had expected HSBC Markit Manufacturing PMI to rise to 52.50 in the last quarter.
Reserve Bank of India Governor Raghuram Rajan has long warned of the risk to emerging economies when the US Federal Reserve makes the first rise in its zero percent interest rates since the 2008 financial crisis.
The data also showed lower than estimated growth numbers for exports, capital investment and consumption sectors, suggesting deeper underlying weaknesses in Asia's third-largest economy, which grew at more than 9 percent before the 2008 global financial crisis.
tosh Raina of HDFC Bank expects the bond market to be in a range for some more time because of the expected news on switch.
Siddhartha Sanyal, Chief India Economist at Barclays believes that there is a strong case for RBI to hold rates in the upcoming December monetary policy because he sees inflation softening a bit going forward.
The RBI will announce Governor Raghuram Rajan‘s second monetary policy on Tuesday and his commentary, Siddharth Sanyal, chief India economist, Barclays says, is likely to remain hawkish. Rajan, after having focused on the staggering inflation, will now have to balance both inflation as well as growth.
Siddhartha Sanyal, Chief India Economist, Barclays Capital sees the rupee trading at 61/USD in the next three-six months.
Speaking to CNBC-TV18, Siddhartha Sanyal, chief India economist, Barclays Capital says the government is likely to announce a few measures to combat the steep rupee fall in the medium-term.
Unlike PMEAC chairman C Rangarajan, Siddhartha Sanyal feels given the huge FII outflows recently seen from fixed income and equities, financing CAD would be a bigger problem.
This set of measures is expected to be rolled back not necessarily in the next few weeks or maybe a month, but by Q4 they should be rolled back. Siddhartha Sanyal is factoring in the first cut in repo rate sometime in December 2013 because of the growth inflation dynamics
Siddhartha Sanyal of Barclays Capital believes that as gold becomes less of a lucrative import, trade deficit can come in the range of USD 16 billion a month and then it might significantly fall below USD 15 billion as well.
Siddhartha Sanyal, director and chief economist, Barclays Capital and Keki Mistry, vice-chairman and CEO, HDFC, in a discussion on CNBC-TV18, agree there is no quick fix for the current account deficit and that curbs on gold imports and reforms offer the best hope
Indranil Pan of Kotak Mahindra Bank said they were looking at a figure of 7.5 percent and though, on a relative basis it seems to be a better number, when compared to the consumer price index (CPI) it is still not great.
According to economists Siddhartha Sanyal and Rahul Bajoria, weakness in usually resilient segments like consumption and domestic trade suggests continued sluggishness in overall economic activity.
Siddhartha Sanyal of Barclays Capital describes the contraction in IIP as a shocker. He was expecting a better number, taking into consideration the decent core IIP number.