Currently, liquidity in the banking system is in deficit of around Rs 1.63 lakh crore. Borrowing via MSF is expected to remain high for some time to come because liquidity will remain tight.
Bank treasury heads said that the systemic liquidity tightness will ease in the coming days after the second phased reversal of the I-CRR on September 23.
CARE Ratings has come out with its report on RBI's Monetary Policy. The rating agency foresee a 50 basis points cut in the repo rate in FY16, the same is unlikely to be seen till June '15, says the report.
Tirthankar Patnaik, Director - Institutional Research, Religare Capital Markets believes if the US Federal Reserve does not move on taper today, market will resume uptrend. He feels the actual tapering will start only in March.
Depending on what the RBI does tomorrow, there might be a rally in banks. At the moment, most funds – domestic as well as international – are underweight on banks and are waiting for this policy to take a call.
Sonal Varma, Chief Economist at Nomura India, is expecting a 25 bps repo rate hike on October 29, followed by another 25 bps hike. She further expects the RBI to cut its growth forecast from 5.5 percent to 5 percent.
Considering that both CPI and WPI inflation came in a good 30-40 bps higher than the previous month, chances are the RBI will hike the repo rate in the forthcoming credit policy and therefore accordingly the cost of raising deposits for banks will if anything rise.
The rise in WPI seems to be more of a food impact. But the RBI is likely to be cautious and may even raise the repo rate in its upcoming October 20 monetary policy.
There is no fix number as MSF is there to meet the frictional liquidity conditions. The impact on cost of funds because of marginal standing facility rate being cut by 50 basis points yesterday would depend from bank to bank. Those banks which depend more on bulk funds would be impacted more.
Banks cheered the move as the overnight borrowing rate dropped to 9 percent from 9.5 percent. YES Bank and IndusInd Bank gained the most among largecaps, rising 6-7 percent followed by Kotak Mahindra Bank and Axis Bank with 3.5 percent gains.
Kotak Mahindra Bank feels that the bond market is still worried about the absence of fiscal consolidation and that will keep it under stress going forward.
Existing unexpired contracts of expiry months September 2013, October 2013 and November 2013 would continue to be available for trading till their respective expiry and new strikes would also be introduced in the existing contract months, the exchange said.
"In the short-term (income) funds, investors should have a horizon of not less than one year. Similarly, in the long-term funds, investors should stay invested for 18 months or beyond," says Amit Tripathi, Fixed Income Head at Reliance Mutual Fund.
VR Iyer of Bank of India says that currently there is no need to increase the base rates as its liquidity position is 'fairly comfortable'. She told CNBC-TV18 that deposit growth in the times to come will decide whether to increase deposit rates, which will result in hiking base rates too.
The Indian rupee recently hit record low at 61.32/USD. Since May, it has lost more than 11 percent against the greenback. This along with the widening current account deficit (CAD) have prompted the authorities to burn the midnight oil to devise strategies in wooing overseas investors.
The Reserve Bank of India said that it did not receive any bids on the second day at the special repo auction for mutual funds.
Suresh Sadagopan of Ladder7 Financial Advisories discusses the way forward in dealing with debt mutual funds after the currency depreciated and RBi's steps to stem its volatility.
Earlier this week, the Reserve Bank of India had raised the MSF rate, as part of the measures to address the rupee's weakness.
The rupee, which depreciated over 10 percent in last one month, is expected to remain under pressure in the medium-term as external market volatility and high current account deficit are still weighing on the currency.
Morgan Stanley says with economic growth refusing to pick up, higher rates will be negative for banks. State Bank of India, Punjab National Bank, Bank of Baroda, Axis Bank, ICICI Bank and HDFC Bank fell 3-6 percent.
Mecklai graph of the day: The liquidity deficit has risen because of which RBI infused liquidity via its LAF repo window.
Home, auto and corporate loans are likely to become cheaper as the Reserve Bank today slashed the short term lending rate sharply by 0.50% to 8%, signalling banks to cut rates.
With the RBI indicating there maybe limited room for more rate cuts, experts say bond yields may stay within a tight range for the time being.
In a bid to ease the huge liquidity pressure on the last day of the financial year, the RBI decided to conduct additional operations under Liquidity Adjustment Facility (LAF) on March 31, 2012 (Saturday). It will happen in between 2.30 p.m. and 3.00 p.m. The regulator normally does not carry LAF actions on any Saturday.